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David Henig Profile picture
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10 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Could UK vaccination success actually lead to harsher lockdown and travel restrictions than other countries? In which case it might not quite be the victory the nationalist cheerleaders are hoping for...
Suspicion that failure of previous government covid handling and lockdown sceptic forecasts means that we are now destined for continued tougher lockdowns (indeed already in one) than comparable countries despite vaccine success.
Harsher lockdowns than others probably popular. Just there goes the argument that vaccine success will provide significant economic boost. Choices...
Yup, from IfG... instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
11 Feb
What is happening in UK trade post-Brexit (EU and global) is what I always feared - a government not getting a handle on the day-to-day issues that cost business and the country, preferring instead the jet-setting photo opportunity and talk of future deals.ft.com/content/3dad4e…
Take the share trading news. Is it on its own a significant loss - no. But it is part of a pattern, the UK isn't getting financial services equivalence from the EU the way things are going, doesn't know what to do about it, activity goes to EU.
We have a @britishchambers survey of firms experience trading with the EU today. As you'd expect, a lot of issues. Will they be terminal to all business - again no. But some will, and some business will go to the EU. There's a pattern here. britishchambers.org.uk/news/2021/02/b…
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
10 Feb
Perhaps though nobody thought the EU was soft. For UK reasons include lack of trust, proximity, size, and not to encourage others.

All of which is largely irrelevant to the main question, what are we going to do about it? Because until we find leverage, they can do as they will.
The current government and Brexit partisans have no coherent answer on how to address EU action that harms the UK. They alternately talk tough, say we're taking our ball elsewhere, or whimper. There is no sense of UK agency like priorities or influencing, and little consistency.
And this is also the problem with a government that doesn't open itself to scrutiny and an opposition that doesn't want to push the issue too far. Who is pointing out the failures of the UK's negotiating strategy with the EU, and what can be done about them?
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
10 Feb
Short of making factories less productive we are not going to see a surge in manufacturing jobs anywhere.

Better then to work out what is the problem we're trying to solve. Is is that low end services jobs are worse thought than low end manufacturing jobs?

Then fix that.
Its a big problem of the modern political economy. Manufacturing jobs are seen as a gold standard for those with only a basic education. But there aren't going to be enough jobs. Whereas there are many jobs going in caring or distribution. But they aren't considered as desirable.
Same of course true for trade policy. Goods are considered more important than services. Even for economies which are three quarters services. Our mental maps of the economy are wrong. And many have been blaming others e.g. China, EU etc. But remedies can be domestic.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Feb
The UK government appear to want to treat relations with the EU as if this was nothing special. We're past that. Problem is that means currently nobody is controlling all the different facets, making the EU more of an issue. Bad idea needing reversal.
This is also why the UK government needs a dedicated Minister and team on EU relations. Because the decisions of the EU will have significant impact on the UK economy. And yet without hard work we have no influence.
So we currently have Defra writing to the EU about shellfish, HMT negotiating financial services equivalence, DCMS considering musician visas, Cabinet Office talking Northern Ireland protocol, FCDO considering EU Ambassador status and so on. Needs proper coordination.
Read 13 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Feb
Of course if you see the Brexit vote as being against globalisation, as many do particularly outside the UK, then the new trade barriers are both a natural consequence and not necessarily as publicly problematic as sometimes thought.
There is the interpretation of Brexit that it is the 'London liberal elite' putting a free trade spin on a protectionist vote in a nod to the Conservative Party's 1980s version as a free trade party. Which of course it wasn't historically.
Because the government is primarily writing the narrative, both directly and through the way the UK media works, we hear their version of Brexit. But as I frequently point out it is contradictory, talking free trade putting up barriers. Do we pay too much attention to the talk?
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Feb
Good. We are rather overdue to have a conversation about the UK's realistic options with regard to Northern Ireland and more broadly EU trade, particularly on food. And I suspect not there yet, but all signs of politicians understanding our situation are welcome.
You can delay facing up to problems by negotiating treaties in secret, engaging only rarely with stakeholders, and refusing to allow proper Parliamentary scrutiny. But that is bound to lead to problems in the end when there are hugely significant issues at stake.
Once again I don't think we're fully there yet, but the trade debate is changing now British producers increasingly realise what the government has done, and that is slowly seeping into public awareness. Promises of new trade deals may delay until shown they don't help much.
Read 8 tweets

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