The current government and Brexit partisans have no coherent answer on how to address EU action that harms the UK. They alternately talk tough, say we're taking our ball elsewhere, or whimper. There is no sense of UK agency like priorities or influencing, and little consistency.
And this is also the problem with a government that doesn't open itself to scrutiny and an opposition that doesn't want to push the issue too far. Who is pointing out the failures of the UK's negotiating strategy with the EU, and what can be done about them?
We can't be sure that a different strategy would lead to a different result. But maybe try? Recognise the EU Ambassador, start engaging with member states, try to find common ground. Or walk away, say we're having nothing to do with the EU. Choose.
"We left, we don't care about the EU. Your loss. But we'd quite like equivalence. Though your loss if you don't give us it. And we're going to stop you doing business in London if you don't give us what we don't in any case want" is not going to help us get anything.
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Think this could usefully be translated. The first two, particularly the second, are clear EU asks. We have a deal, it needs implementing. The third is a nod to UK asks - "workable solutions". Fourth is a demand from the ground, need for a common understanding. Fifth - the means.
Sense that the Northern Ireland protocol is a technical compromise solution without a conceptual underpinning, thus being vulnerable to accidental and wilful misunderstanding. Urgent need for that narrative to accompany measures, in particular as barriers will increase.
Because every time the EU implements a changed or new goods regulation and the UK does not (and vice versa) that will add to GB-Northern Ireland trade barriers. Mechanisms can be eased, but they won't be removed, and the protocol is here to stay in the absence of alternatives.
The conundrum is... if the EU grant easements while the UK suggest the protocol is invalid then it never ends. So the EU need the UK to fully accept the overall protocol which includes checks. But the PM and others in the UK won't admit that.
The EU can't get off its high horse with regard to Northern Ireland while the UK government believe the threat to the protocol it made for three months was less serious than the threat the EU made for three hours. All changes if the UK government adapt, but of course DUP...
The UK government hostility towards the EU over Northern Ireland, the Ambassador's status, etc is all fine if we have a good negotiating position e.g. we could walk away. But in fact it turns out we won't. Therefore we need to change tack, and then persuade the EU.
What is happening in UK trade post-Brexit (EU and global) is what I always feared - a government not getting a handle on the day-to-day issues that cost business and the country, preferring instead the jet-setting photo opportunity and talk of future deals.ft.com/content/3dad4e…
Take the share trading news. Is it on its own a significant loss - no. But it is part of a pattern, the UK isn't getting financial services equivalence from the EU the way things are going, doesn't know what to do about it, activity goes to EU.
We have a @britishchambers survey of firms experience trading with the EU today. As you'd expect, a lot of issues. Will they be terminal to all business - again no. But some will, and some business will go to the EU. There's a pattern here. britishchambers.org.uk/news/2021/02/b…
Its a big problem of the modern political economy. Manufacturing jobs are seen as a gold standard for those with only a basic education. But there aren't going to be enough jobs. Whereas there are many jobs going in caring or distribution. But they aren't considered as desirable.
Same of course true for trade policy. Goods are considered more important than services. Even for economies which are three quarters services. Our mental maps of the economy are wrong. And many have been blaming others e.g. China, EU etc. But remedies can be domestic.
Could UK vaccination success actually lead to harsher lockdown and travel restrictions than other countries? In which case it might not quite be the victory the nationalist cheerleaders are hoping for...
Suspicion that failure of previous government covid handling and lockdown sceptic forecasts means that we are now destined for continued tougher lockdowns (indeed already in one) than comparable countries despite vaccine success.
Harsher lockdowns than others probably popular. Just there goes the argument that vaccine success will provide significant economic boost. Choices...
The UK government appear to want to treat relations with the EU as if this was nothing special. We're past that. Problem is that means currently nobody is controlling all the different facets, making the EU more of an issue. Bad idea needing reversal.
This is also why the UK government needs a dedicated Minister and team on EU relations. Because the decisions of the EU will have significant impact on the UK economy. And yet without hard work we have no influence.
So we currently have Defra writing to the EU about shellfish, HMT negotiating financial services equivalence, DCMS considering musician visas, Cabinet Office talking Northern Ireland protocol, FCDO considering EU Ambassador status and so on. Needs proper coordination.