Only about a third of anaesthetic departments operating well in December- worse then October and before the new year surge hit
All but 14% of hospitals in a surge setting and half not able to meet ICU demand as normal
Impact on surgery at least as bad as in October
1 in 5 operating theatres closed
Open theatres working at well below normal activity
Impact of surgical activity across the board
Non cancer down 36%
Paediatric surgery down 35%
Cancer surgery down 30%
Even emergencies down 10%
Overall impact shown here
Overall we’re NOT doing more than a quarter of normal surgical activity
That’s 5500 cases a day
Well over 1 million a year
The reason for the downturn lies mostly in availability of staff
Almost 1 in 5 of anaesthetists not available for normal work
Oct-Dec big increase in redeployment of anaesthetists to ICU
Amazing response from Uk Anaesthetists to provide this - almost real-time data - on impact of ICU pressures on UK surgical capabilities
Thank you
Importantly the 3rd round capturing key data from January is now under way
Please send your data
Many thanks to to the @HSRCNews staff at @RCoANews for working through this so promptly and to the #NAP7 fellows who have done so much this year despite the main project being stalled @emirakur @adk300 @drrichstrong
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Nice to see this published
Working with @john_actuary from @COVID19actuary we’ve modelled impact of vaccination on
-deaths
-hospital admissions
-ICU admissions
Vaccinating just by age would have this impact on the three measures
The lag in the last two is because the groups differ.
Median ages
-deaths 83
-hospitalised 73
-ICU 61
So the cohort who might get to ICU have to wait for vaccination
If the graphs are adjusted to account for
-gp2 health/social care workers
-gp4 extremely clin vulnerable
-gp6 high risk
They look like this with lag slightly reduced (and the health service staff protected)
Vaccinating 15% of popln
-huge impact on deaths
-modest impact on ICU
Not sure altmetric is be-all & end-all but it looks like
the meta-analysis of ICU outcomes from COVID by @drrichstrong@adk300 has just become @Anaes_Journal no. 1 using that metric
Quite a feat during a pandemic while doing your day jobs
Well done🎩
Thanks @Anaes_Journal for publishing it and handling it so expertly and promptly, as usual
2/n
Unlike most papers this year it had a somewhat positive message showing how in-ICU mortality has fallen over the first months of the pandemic
- from around 60% in Jan-March
- to less than to 30% in May
An awful disease but one in which we have been making improvements