Thread by @doctimcook

Nice to see this published
Working with @john_actuary from @COVID19actuary we’ve modelled impact of vaccination on
-deaths
-hospital admissions
-ICU admissions

…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

Vaccinating just by age would have this impact on the three measures

The lag in the last two is because the groups differ.

Median ages
-deaths 83
-hospitalised 73
-ICU 61

So the cohort who might get to ICU have to wait for vaccination

If the graphs are adjusted to account for
-gp2 health/social care workers
-gp4 extremely clin vulnerable
-gp6 high risk
They look like this with lag slightly reduced (and the health service staff protected)

Vaccinating 15% of popln
-huge impact on deaths
-modest impact on ICU

Transforming into a timeline looks like this

A few implications
-steep slopes mean lots to gain in hospital & ICU admission by vaccinating beyond gps 1-4 (age >70)
-we need to vaccinate about 50% of adult population (gps 1-7) for significant impact on admissions

The curve arguably offers some support for the strategy of delaying 2nd vaccine dose as it enables penetration deep into the adult population within three months

After 50% of adult population vaccinated the curves flatten so there are questions/opportunities.
Should we vaccinate
-by age?
-key workers?
-the young (to stop spread)?
-another country (to help manage the global problem)?

The model is only that: ’a model’
With lots of assumptions
-100% take-up (in the over 60s)
-100% efficacy (at preventing severe disease)
-vaccine rate is maintained

We believe these are all reasonably justified

But we’ve modelled for lesser...

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