Thread by @matthickmannl

Things aren't great right now but we should all breathe deeply for a minute: Here's a thread about the current #covid19nfld outbreak that nobody has asked for. My turn to shout (while masked) into the (distanced) void.

To begin, I take the current outbreak very seriously & hope you do too. Follow the @CMOH_NL 's advice and guidance. Things aren't exactly great ATM, but by following her guidance, we've done well. I haven't always understood every decision but I've always followed her advice.

We had a close-to-normal life since summer. We CAN & WILL get back there soon. AND, I understand that fear and stress elevate once kids are involved. So I certainly don't want to come off as preachy or like I'm sitting in judgement of someone who's nervous AF right now. I get it.

I DO, however, want to speak to a few points that I've seen online. For example, I see ppl saying that "things will be worse by tomorrow if we don't do x/y/z." Look, maybe those things are important to address the matter, but it won't change today's or tomorrow's #'s.

The cases reported today are from infections days ago. Those horses have left their barns. Don't despair when we see the case counts; recognize that we're FINDING the next sources of trouble and clamping down on them. That's a GOOD thing. The sooner we find them, the better.

I'm no epidemiologist, but I saw a thread (that I can't locate now, naturally) from someone who IS an epidemiologist, and he pointed out that HAVING cases sucks, but FINDING them is good. Each one found is a threat vector intercepted & useful data on where to look next.

A focus on short term #'s doesn't help us. We need to focus on what's NEXT and how we respond to the data, not what's already happened. Looking back once we are clear from all this to find lessons is great, but we can't effectively do that mid-stream.

I've also read ppl worrying that our case counts are the highest since March, and that soon this outbreak will surpass the Caul's Cluster, etc etc etc. That's largely irrelevant, as each outbreak is different. It's really misleading and it isn't at all a proper comparison.

Think back to March: how many daily tests were they doing then? IIRC, initially you couldn't GET tested unless you'd travelled. Later, you needed several symptoms. They tested very few people back then compared to today. I imagine we're testing between 4x & 5x as many people now.

This isn't some Trumpian "the problem is the testing!" thing. I raise it to point out that because we tested so little back then, the problem was probably far greater than we could conclusively say, and so we needed very blunt instruments to shut it down, and it took a long time.

Now, we can test a TON more, even though it takes a bit of time given the demand. We can get a much better picture of what's happening, and take specific, targeted measures that are most likely to lead to reduced transmission in the days and weeks to come.

If we tested, say, 900 people a day in March, it stands to reason those numbers would have been far, far higher than officially reported. Looking at recent/near-future numbers and despairing because they're higher than they were in March is making an Apples:Oranges comparison.

Another thing working in our favour today: masks. Remember last spring? Health Canada said they didn't help. Then we couldn't easily get them. Now we all have them, & most people even wear them. They help A LOT. Unlike March, ppl can take this step to protect themselves & others.

Lastly, I see ppl saying we're done for bc we're not taking the same measures we did in Spring. I can't say what's right or wrong, but I have faith in @CMOH_NL. There're lots of things that go into her analysis & she sees the data, understands it, and takes action. I'm ok w that.

To sum up: this is a serious problem, but it is being taken seriously by serious people, who are taking serious action based on serious data. It doesn't matter to THIS outbreak if the numbers exceed the LAST outbreak; that was, in COVID terms, a lifetime ago.

Stay home if they say you should, wear your mask, call 811 if you're unwell, and listen to @CMOH_NL. Keep your eyes on the prize, knowing that daily #s don't tell us where we're going, but merely where we've been. What happens next is what matters most.

Oh, if you're still reading this, before I go I should say that I have no clue if the election should proceed or be changed/cancelled/whatever. Smarter minds than mine can weigh in. I hope everyone eventually gets a chance to vote & however they can make that happen is fine w me.

ONE MORE LAST thing - if you know someone who's tested positive, or awaiting a test nervously, be a decent human. Be empathetic, kind, and don't judge or bully. Being a jerk doesn't help anyone.