1/ Getting a sense that the DPPs recent antics with TSMC are not being appreciated in the Biden admin, to say nothing of the EU
2/ The DPP is anxious because current trends that by 2025, China, the US, and/or Korea will be at or near parity with TSMC, and INDOPACOM will be unable to defend Taiwan even if it commits a sizeable % of its assets
3/ Which means if the DPP doesn't secure a hard security guarantee - something like a US tripwire on Taiwan in the next few years, they have no outs
4/ Hence their current urgency in milking TSMC for all it's worth.
5/ Now, the Biden admin might give them a reiteration of the TRA and MILEX invitations, but that's it.
But even that would be a mistake, because it raises the cost of lost US prestige when reunification happens
But even that would be a mistake, because it raises the cost of lost US prestige when reunification happens
6/ Instead, if I was the US, I'd try to find a way to lower the temperature and get the world's attention off Taiwan over the next few years. The good thing is, the PRC would be very receptive to this as well
7/ The DPP themselves are likely trying to find some negotiated way off the cliff, but I don't think China is interested in talking, since it holds the DPP partly responsible for instigating the HK protests to get Tsai re-elected
End/...which is another reason why the DPP has been trying extremely hard to raise Taiwan's international profile. But with this latest stunt, they've really overplayed their hand. Moves are being made that will permanently remove TWs relevance to the world economy
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