Thread by @TheDailyMao

Good intent, but any plan for "peacefully preserving Taiwan's autonomy" that leaves out the cessation of Huawei sanctions and artificial chip shortages - ie ending TWs undeclared economic war on the mainland - will not lead to peace across the straits

https://twitter.com/CFR_org/status/1360274776665767936

At the end of the day, mainland China cares very little about what new names the DPP chooses for a random memorial. It cares much much MUCH more about TW choking its electronics industry and lobbying for sanctions on its chip designers and fabs

TWs hypocritical and self-destructive calls for "shifting supply chains out of China" while making 27% of its GDP from exports to China has not gone unnoticed in Beijing. The new consensus in the PRC govt is that TW politics has become permanently irrational

With that, mainland China is forming two (not necessarily exclusive) plans: a peaceful one to wean itself off TWs technological inputs, and a less peaceful one that kinetically reunifies the island and secures its capabilities

The simplest way for the US to lower tensions in the strait would be to lower the main land's risk perception around sourcing tech inputs from TW - either by removing sanctions + pledging not to egregiously sanction Chinese firms or by encouraging tech diffusion into China

Given Xi and Biden's joint emphasis on maintaining a stable global order, I'm pretty sure the mainland would be fine kicking the can down the road another few years if that were done in addition to the points raised in the CFR article

The challenge for the US will be to show Chinese policymakers that peacefully participating in the US-led global market will drive faster and more comprehensive development in China than the alternative. That bargain has been wearing thin for a range of reasons...

...And the TW chip embargo very well might be the last straw.

The scary part for the US is that many other countries are also getting frustrated with this arrangement as well, which means the entire US global system could rapidly reorient if China exits.

/end