I'm increasingly concerned that people are sharing entertaining stories and delivering free advice on Clubhouse. How are talking heads on cable TV news expected to complete with this phenomenon? And don't get me started about the adverse impact of Clubhouse on bots and trolls.
Why would an interesting and knowledgeable person want to have a fun non-adversarial conversation with similar people in a public setting that thousands of people may find informative and entertaining?
Aren't divisive and adversarial interviews good enough for these people?
The positive public conversations happening on Clubhouse can easily spread to other platforms. Demagogues and other peddlers of divisive twaddle will unfairly be forced to compete for attention. I'm concerned that cable news ratings in may fall significantly in key demographics.
4/ The obvious danger is that other startups and legacy networks like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat have the ability to create their own Clubhouse style services and build new business models to support the service. These services might spread to smaller communities.
5/ A nightmare scenario is open source-based Clubhouse style networks proliferating and requiring people to use real names. Variants of these networks might increase accountability and enable people to fill voids created by the disappearance of local sources of information! 🙀
6/ If the risks to clickbait-based web sites and purveyors of chum boxes I raised cause you to lose sleep tonight, I apologize. But I fear media concentration might be reduced and more diverse, intelligent and less sociopathic and narcissistic voices will increasingly be heard.
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1/ Howard Marks: “We've never had growth potential relying on code and engineers rather than equipment. Firms have few assets and a high ratio of price-to-assets, but it's meaningless because potential profitability is not asset-based, it’s idea-based." investec.com/en_za/focus/in…
2/ "If a software company develops a desirable app or piece of software and they produce 100, it costs several million. But the next 100 costs almost nothing and the next costs almost nothing so incremental profitability is extremely high and reliance on assets is extremely low.”
3/ "It's not what you buy, it's what you pay for it. There's no reason why a fast-growing company can't be good value or why a low multiple company can't be a good investment." "Anything can be overvalued and produce a poor return or undervalued and produce a good return."
Rich Barton at Zillow is like Ted Williams hitting a baseball.
"You can name people who are richer than Rich, but you can’t name very many people who have his track record. You will find very few people in this country who have as many times created something from nothing.”
“If we’re doing things for regular folks that make their lives better and save them money and give them transparency, we’re on the side of the angels.” Rich Barton nytimes.com/2014/04/14/tec…
A few years ago I was going in for unexpected surgery and I sent an email to a few friends saying "it was nice knowing you if I don't survive." Rich had a balloons in my room to cheer me up amazingly quickly. Not only is he a great entrepreneur but he is a caring and kind person.
1/ I flashed back to 1994 when I heard Elon Musk say recently: "If you need encouraging words, don't do a startup."
I was in that situation in 1994 and for me doing a "zero to one" startup was a mission: bring the benefits of broadband networks to every place on Earth.
2/ When someone like Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos sets out on a mission not primarily driven by economic returns the world will benefit from positive externalities of the inevitable innovations that result from the work. Bezos is a example of a missionary. washingtonpost.com/technology/202…
3/ Both Elon and Bezos know that BIG changes happen faster if the activity has positive economics. It isn't that return on investment isn't important, but that profit and free cash flow enable the mission to achieve scale. Bill Gates believes this about achieving scale too.
"In 2020, companies with real options had a valuation boost for their current operations because of a fall in the cost of capital and a gain in their real options because of an increase in volatility." Michael Mauboussin FT today.
2/ "A real option has the right—but not the obligation—to make a potentially value-accretive investment. Investment examples include new plants, line extensions, joint ventures, and licensing agreements." capatcolumbia.com/Articles/FoFin…
3/ Risk isn't uncertainty.
"Uncertainty can be your friend because you can learn from experience and use the option not to make an investment. There’s no necessary association with loss
with uncertainty, whereas with risk there’s the concept of a potential downside.” Mauboussin
"Can you recall when a promoter bought a stock that was more than 100% shorted and was able to convince many people who didn’t know exactly what to do that if the promoter was buying that stock then it was a good idea for them to buy the stock?"
2/ Not exactly is the answer. Munger was actually using the example of oil company CEOs buying fertilizer manufacturers to illustrate "bias from over-influence by social proof, that is, the conclusions of others, particularly under conditions of natural uncertainty and stress."
3/ Cialdini: "We will use the actions of others to decide on proper behavior for ourselves, especially when we view those others as similar to ourselves. When we are uncertain, we are willing to place an enormous amount of trust in the collective knowledge of the crowd."
1/ Learning painful lessons vicariously is preferable to touching a hot stove or peeing on the electric fence yourself. Vicarious lessons aren't as vivid as mistakes you make yourself, but they're still valuable. One great learning opportunity was the late 1990s Internet bubble.
2/ When NASDAQ peaked in March 2000 if you didn't see people learning vivid lessons, you weren't paying attention.
1. The only thing you can spend is cash- This seems obvious, but if you need cash fast and take a giant haircut when quickly selling an asset you own, it is vivid.
3/
2. When a correction happens, everything financial is correlated. People run from risk. This causes them to sell what’s most liquid and that, you know, quickly impacts price. What people thought was diversification, isn't, especially in the short run. Cash gets scarce fast.