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11 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
.@SimNasr with an informative piece on the politics of al-Qaida's West and north affiliate(s). He argues that there are "tight organizational and subordination links between JNIM and AQIM." Also quotes responses by new AQIM chief al-Annabi to his 12 questions in early 2019.
"In his answers to the author’s questions, al-Annabi gave insight into the dynamics between JNIM and AQIM: “JNIM is a non-dissociable part of AQIM, which in its turn is an non-dissociable part of al-Qaeda central."
"AQIM’s willingness to overlook personal and ethnic grievances to coalesce...under the JNIM banner has given it flexibility and resistance to military pressure, and...garnered praise from al Qaeda central – [which] criticized Droukdel a decade earlier for being too compromising."
ICYMI and FWIW, some years ago when JNIM was formed, its chief Iyad Ag Ghaly pledged allegiance to Taliban chief Akhundzada, in addition to Zawahiri and then AQIM chief Droukdel.

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More from @asfandyarmir

Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
12 Feb
Thread on some pieces on US policy towards Pakistan, issues that will be in focus in the Biden era: 1/n
Olson says US should engage on security issues due to China's influence, but "days of a tight U.S.-Pakistan relationship, in which the military and intelligence aspects of cooperation dominated, are probably gone for good." 2/n usip.org/publications/2…
Chaudhary and Nasr argue that "If the United States continues to tether the stability of the region to Pakistan, then it must make far more significant investments in the country beyond security interests." 3/n atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
Read 6 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
10 Feb
In a video msg, Al-Qaida in Arabian Peninsula chief Batarfi channels Bin Laden's bait-bleed-exhaust doctrine to US negotiations with Taliban: "[bleeding] militarily and economically in Iraq and Afghanistan...forced [US] to negotiate with Taliban movement." ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/aqa…
To be sure, US negotiations with the Taliban are not the main point of the video. He uses them as one of a number of data-points on supposed US decline, including the Jan 6 storming of the capitol and 400K cases (deaths) in COVID.
ICYMI, al-Qaida celebrated the US-Taliban Doha deal as "enemy acknowledging its defeat." news.siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/…
Read 5 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
10 Feb
.@MadihaAfzal suggests that many Afghanistan watchers are framing the May deadline as a unilateral obligation for the US and that staying on will constitute a violation of the deal. Important point but I have a different read of this camp. 1/4 brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…
I see them asking that if the US doesn't keep up with the May deadline, unilaterally decides to extend it or sidesteps it, can it take on costs that may follow? These may range from on the lower end even higher levels of violence, which may require a surge of US troops... 2/4
..., & on the higher-end collapse of the Doha process. I don't see them condoning Taliban breaches of the deal, esp on ties with al-Qaida, but only acknowledging that the Taliban balance of resolve to maintain fight is higher, real levers for the US to enforce conditions few. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
10 Feb
Key points by CENTCOM chief McKenzie on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and great power competition in conversation @MiddleEastInst with Amb Gerry Feierstein. 1/4 centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcri…
On Afghanistan: "I remain concerned about the actions that the Taliban have taken up until this point [but] I would not want to get out ahead of that policy review for obvious reasons." 2/4 Image
On Pak: "Pakistan is absolutely critical by their location next to Afghanistan. They've helped us in some ways. We sometimes wish they would do more...[Bajwa is] receptive to the messages that I've asked him to pass and the things I've asked him to work in regard to [AFG]... "3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
13 Jan
Important investigation by @LynzyBilling on an unreported December attack at the (in)famous Camp Chapman, which indicates how the US military is hushing violence to protect the Doha agreement. I am quoted in the story with @and_huh_what and @MichaelKugelman.
"The attack killed four members of the Khost Protection Force, or KPF—a CIA-trained and equipped militia that maintains an iron grip on the province—as well as three Afghan soldiers and at least six civilians."
"Employees at the base familiar with the situation confirmed that U.S. advisers were still at Chapman at the time of the attack."
Read 5 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
12 Jan
Some thoughts on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's Iran-al-Qaida nexus speech: 1/n
1. Pompeo today made a case for how al-Qaida poses a major threat to the US and allied interests in the Middle East in a host of ways. But last few years, the Trump admin -- led by him -- has been arguing the opposite to overstate own CT track record and withdraw from Afghanistan
In March 2020, he said on Fox and Friends: "Al Qaeda is a shadow of its former self" foxnews.com/media/sec-pomp…
Read 20 tweets

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