Thread by @asfandyarmir

Some thoughts on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's Iran-al-Qaida nexus speech: 1/n

1. Pompeo today made a case for how al-Qaida poses a major threat to the US and allied interests in the Middle East in a host of ways. But last few years, the Trump admin -- led by him -- has been arguing the opposite to overstate own CT track record and withdraw from Afghanistan

In March 2020, he said on Fox and Friends: "Al Qaeda is a shadow of its former self" foxnews.com/media/sec-pomp…

In 2020, on the eve of 9/11, current acting-secretary of defense and previously director NCTC Miller argued in an op-ed that al-Qaida is on the verge of defeat: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

In November, Pompeo's coordinator for CT declared "I think al-Qaida's on the ropes, no doubt..." voanews.com/south-central-…

2. Pompeo claimed in his remarks "[since 2015] A sea change was happening within the Iran-al-Qaeda axis. Let me give you some info that is brand new to the public today." Going to try to parse what's new, what's not, and what's believable in his claims.

Info 1: "Iran decided to allow al-Qaeda to establish a new operational headquarters, on the condition that al-Qaeda operatives inside abide by the regime’s rules governing al-Qaeda’s stay inside the country."

Reaction: Big claim, not implausible, but provides nothing in support. Also not clear what is an operational headquarters? Fwiw, previous work -- based on Bin Laden documents and interviews -- doesn't lend to Iran's support amounting to an operational hq:

https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1286558295180759041?s=20

Info 2: "The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security and the IRGC have provided safe havens and logistical support – like travel documents, ID cards, and passports – that enable al-Qaeda activity."

Reaction: This is old news. Treasury sanctioned MOIS in 2012 for supporting al-Qaida: "MOIS has facilitated the movement of al Qa’ida operatives in Iran and provided them with documents, identification cards, and passports." treasury.gov/press-center/p…

Info 3: "Al-Qaeda has centralized its leadership inside Tehran. Ayman al-Zawahiri’s deputies are there today – and they’re living a normal life...like Sayf al-Adl and the now-dead Abu Muhammad al-Masri have been able to place a new emphasis on plotting attacks."

Reaction: Much of this is old news -- Adal and Abu Muhammed being deputies and their presence in Iran has been documented for many years -- but "emphasis on plotting attacks" can be argued as new language

Info 4: "Tehran has allowed al-Qaeda to fundraise, freely communicate with other al-Qaeda members, and perform many other functions that were previously directed from Afghanistan and Pakistan."

Reaction: Treasury has sanctioned al-Qaida operatives in Iran for fundraising/moving money for ~ decade. See designation of Suri et al: treasury.gov/press-center/p…; al-Harbi's: treasury.gov/press-center/p…; Sadikov's: treasury.gov/press-center/p…;

Abu Mohsen: treasury.gov/press-center/p…; al-Khalidi et al: treasury.gov/press-center/p…

3. On Pompeo's claim that "Iran is the new Afghanistan – as the key geographic hub for AQ – but it’s actually worse", not convinced the implied shift is right. For eg: a 2021 Treasury assessment on al-Qaida status in Afghanistan suggests different picture: treasury.gov/about/organiza…

On al-Qaida trajectory in the country, Treasury says it is "gaining strength in Afghanistan"

Treasury also says Al-Qaida, AQIS, and TTP "continue to use the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region as a safe haven"

4. All of the above is to say that while Pompeo's contents are not implausible--in fact, they align with what has trickled out on al-Qaida-Iran ties, his framing of the Iran-al-Qaida nexus is hyperbolic. Keep in mind he has understated al-Qaida's threat when it has served him...

...so if he is now elevating it on his way out all of a sudden, this is not about al-Qaida or the threat it poses. He has other motives. n/n