Climate slightly slows progress (not end-of-world)

Technology and higher incomes make us more resilient

Climate doesn't reverse that positive trend, despite what you hear

Here is one of world's leading child killers, diarrhea

Mortality keeps declining, even in a warming world
Diarrhea is one of the world's leading child killers
Used to kill 4+ million a year
Now 550K
2050 286K

WHO estimates that climate means 33k more deaths, postponing progress about 2 years in 2050

ihmeuw.org/5d7x apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
We see the same trend with malaria

Although global warming will make malaria worse, it is overwhelmingly improved by technology and resilience

This comes from the conversation around "climate is most important health problem"

No, it is not

Many people answered 'but malaria' or 'but diarrhea', and above is the answer

Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions

Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction

Read my free peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o

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More from @BjornLomborg

10 Feb
Lots of media claiming a new Lancet study shows stronger climate ambitions can save upwards of 10 million lives annually

Not surprisingly, that's not what the study actually documents

Thread

Study: thelancet.com/journals/lanpl…

indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Study shows eating healthier can save 6.5m lives/year

Yes, *very* healthy to eat more fruits+vegetables, less red meat and reduce obesity

But apart from red meat, this is health policy, not climate policy

And unrealistically assumes 86-92% red meat reduction and 50% go vegan
Air pollution is bad, and cutting it could save 1.6m/yr

For ~$150bn/yr much cleaner air in China through air pollution control. Good deal

But again, doing this with climate policy, much costlier (China ~$1 trillion/yr)
Read 5 tweets
7 Feb
Technology and higher incomes make us more resilient

Climate can make problems harder

Yet, tech & wealth typically outweigh climate

Meaning climate slightly *delay world getting better*

Climate is a problem, not end-of-world

Here malaria in warming world
refs below
Data 1900-1997, ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…; 2000-19 who.int/publications/i…; 2020-60: WHO projections who.int/healthinfo/glo…
WHO extra estimate extra deaths from climate in 2030 and 2050 apps.who.int/iris/handle/10… Image
This comes from the conversation around "climate is most important health problem"

No, it is not

Many people answered 'but malaria', and above is the answer

Read 5 tweets
5 Feb
Still silly: "Climate change most significant public health issue of our time" Biden's Climate Advisor McCarthy

Heart disease kills 33% and cancer 26% of Americans

Heat kills 0.31% and ↘️
Cold 6.4% and ↗️
Extreme weather: 0.015%

Yes, problem
No, 0.325% not biggest challenge
Moreover, most heat deaths are rather easy to tackle (which is why they are declining), bc only affect people for a few days

Cold deaths much worse, because they require months of good heating (why they increase)

Unfortunately newest data to 2006 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Heat deaths have declined precipitously in the US since 1960s, much of it because of widespread availability of air conditioning

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33003149/
Read 6 tweets
28 Jan
Silly: "Climate change most significant public health issue of our time" Biden's Climate Advisor McCarthy

Heart disease kills 33% and cancer 26% of all Americans

Heat kills 0.3% and declining. Cold 6.4% and increasing

Yes, problem. No, 0.3% not biggest challenge

refs below
Moreover, most heat deaths are rather easy to tackle (which is why they are declining), bc only affect people for a few days

Cold deaths much worse, because they require months of good heating (why they increase)

Unfortunately newest data to 2006 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Heat deaths have declined precipitously in the US since 1960s, much of it because of widespread availability of air conditioning

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33003149/
Read 7 tweets
28 Jan
Net zero climate policies will be phenomenally expensive (New Zealand: 16+% of GDP cost)

This will be unpopular with many and likely a majority of voters

That's why Deutche Bank suggests that we'll probably need "a certain degree of eco-dictatorship"

dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2…
Tom Friedman already suggested as much in his 2008 book on climate (p372), wistfully considering that maybe America should be a dictatorship like China (just for one day, but presumably without being able to change anything decided during that day)

amazon.com/Hot-Flat-Crowd…
And Senate Majority Leader Schumer wishing a bit of it just a few days ago

Read 4 tweets
24 Jan
Breathless climate reporting tells of ever-more US fire

Urging strong CO₂ cuts

But US fires used to burn 5-10x more area every year in the early 1900s

Forest management and better zoning will help

CO₂ cuts will help only little

Why don't we hear this?

Refs below
To get the whole picture, including what happens with US fire in the future, if we cut CO₂ — and if we don't

(Includes refs)
Remember, globally, fire also burns much less since 1900:
Read 5 tweets

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