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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
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7 Feb, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Technology and higher incomes make us more resilient

Climate can make problems harder

Yet, tech & wealth typically outweigh climate

Meaning climate slightly *delay world getting better*

Climate is a problem, not end-of-world

Here malaria in warming world
refs below
Data 1900-1997, ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…; 2000-19 who.int/publications/i…; 2020-60: WHO projections who.int/healthinfo/glo…
WHO extra estimate extra deaths from climate in 2030 and 2050 apps.who.int/iris/handle/10… Image
This comes from the conversation around "climate is most important health problem"

No, it is not

Many people answered 'but malaria', and above is the answer

Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions

Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction

Read my free peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o Image

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
5 Feb
Still silly: "Climate change most significant public health issue of our time" Biden's Climate Advisor McCarthy

Heart disease kills 33% and cancer 26% of Americans

Heat kills 0.31% and ↘️
Cold 6.4% and ↗️
Extreme weather: 0.015%

Yes, problem
No, 0.325% not biggest challenge
Moreover, most heat deaths are rather easy to tackle (which is why they are declining), bc only affect people for a few days

Cold deaths much worse, because they require months of good heating (why they increase)

Unfortunately newest data to 2006 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Heat deaths have declined precipitously in the US since 1960s, much of it because of widespread availability of air conditioning

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33003149/
Read 6 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
28 Jan
Silly: "Climate change most significant public health issue of our time" Biden's Climate Advisor McCarthy

Heart disease kills 33% and cancer 26% of all Americans

Heat kills 0.3% and declining. Cold 6.4% and increasing

Yes, problem. No, 0.3% not biggest challenge

refs below
Moreover, most heat deaths are rather easy to tackle (which is why they are declining), bc only affect people for a few days

Cold deaths much worse, because they require months of good heating (why they increase)

Unfortunately newest data to 2006 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Heat deaths have declined precipitously in the US since 1960s, much of it because of widespread availability of air conditioning

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33003149/
Read 7 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
28 Jan
Net zero climate policies will be phenomenally expensive (New Zealand: 16+% of GDP cost)

This will be unpopular with many and likely a majority of voters

That's why Deutche Bank suggests that we'll probably need "a certain degree of eco-dictatorship"

dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2…
Tom Friedman already suggested as much in his 2008 book on climate (p372), wistfully considering that maybe America should be a dictatorship like China (just for one day, but presumably without being able to change anything decided during that day)

amazon.com/Hot-Flat-Crowd…
And Senate Majority Leader Schumer wishing a bit of it just a few days ago

Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
24 Jan
Breathless climate reporting tells of ever-more US fire

Urging strong CO₂ cuts

But US fires used to burn 5-10x more area every year in the early 1900s

Forest management and better zoning will help

CO₂ cuts will help only little

Why don't we hear this?

Refs below
To get the whole picture, including what happens with US fire in the future, if we cut CO₂ — and if we don't

(Includes refs)
Remember, globally, fire also burns much less since 1900:
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
23 Jan
Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires

US fires burn 5-10x less today

Even with extreme warming, area burned will stay about same across century

Climate does increase burned area,

but zoning and forest management much more important

Refs in thread
Fire data 1960-2020 from nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireI…, plus NIFC 2020 estimate from Jan 2 2021

1926-1970 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, L48-52

1900-2000 from Fire history and the global carbon budget, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
... 25% ...from climate change, and "75% is the way we manage lands

eenews.net/stories/106202…
Read 14 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Jan
Despite breathless climate reporting of ever-more fire

Data: Burned area strongly declined

Realistic climate models: area continue to decline, worst-case in 2100 similar to today

Even strong climate policy (70% reduction) makes modest difference

Shouldn't this be reported?
Normally, we hear that climate will make fire area go through the roof

But that is based on climate-only models, ignoring CO₂ fertilization and population

Such simple climate-only models don't fit data at all

nature.com/articles/nclim…
To get to the lower blue line, we have to enact implausibly strong climate policies, cutting 70% of emissions in all countries over rest of century

Yet, the reduction impact in burned area is only equivalent to reduction seen last ten years
Read 10 tweets

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