@realmoney
Supersizing My Disney Short Now
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."
- Warren Buffett
In late March, 2020 I purchased Disney and placed in on my Best Ideas List at $93. At that time, the herd, fearful of the impact of Covid-19 hated the stock which hit a
multi-year low.
The shares are trading in the after hours above $195 now on top and bottom line beats. Everyone loves Disney as an "opening up trade."
I faded the consensus eleven months ago and I am doing the same today.
The reason I am shorting the shares is that if you
apply conservative multipliers to the cash flow of the company's non streaming business - the balance, streaming, has a ridiculously high valuation.
I have moved to a very large short in this name in the after hours $DIS @Jimcramer@tomkeene@cnbcfastmoney@SquawkCNBC
Up on @realmoney
Feb 12, 2021 | 08:45 AM EST DOUG KASS
We All Live in Cathie Wood's World! (But That Could Change Quickly)
* In this market cycle, ARK Invest is at the forefront of investing in disruptive technology
* But I hear the echoes of the "Nifty Fifty Era"
and The Dot.com Boom in today's current market conditions
* ARK is not the first to shoot lights out in the market and to gain massive assets under management
* We should look at the bank trust departments in the late 1960s/early 1970s and the Janus Funds
(especially the Twenty Fund) during the dot.com era to remind ourselves of boom/busts in money management
* ARK may be an intriguing short for those that believe stocks (and technology in particular) are currently overpriced
Feb 09, 2021 | 12:20 PM EST DOUG KASS
Contrary to the Conventional View, the Case for Short Selling Has Improved
* The unfolding of recent events has created an abundance of short selling opportunities
Bull Markets emerge from adversity and bad news, while bear
markets are borne out of prosperity and good news.
So it is with investing methodologies and styles.
To wit, I can't remember when short selling was such a target as today.
And I can't remember - given the market's structural profile and economic/profit uncertainties -
when the opportunities to short have been so attractive.
It is my view to be greedy when others are fearful (of the short side) especially with the apparent distortion between current share price levels and my calculation of "fair market value."
Coming up on @realmoney an interesting angle on the market meltup not discussed widely...
The Virtuous Cycle of Passive Investing - A Winter's Ball
* The teutonic shift from active to passive investing is an under appreciated reason for the recent market meltup
* Passive
investing has resulted in a massive buyer that is materially insensitive to price and indifferent towards fundamental analysis
* Passive inflows are "stickier" than active inflows - this helps to reinforce the (recent) virtuous market cycle and explains the steady surge in prices
* Passive investing, when accompanied with a period of constant product inflows, reduces the markets' "float" and supply of equities
* Lowered floats (and a reduced supply of equities) combined with unprecedented liquidity-driven demand have been a tasty cocktail that has taken
Coming up on @realmoney
A Silver Lining
* I am bullish on the price of silver and gold (and I have large holdings in both)
* This morning silver is +$2.80/0z (or +10.4%) to $29.73oz!
* In my "15 Surprises for 2021" I predicted that silver would outshine both gold and bitcoin
- rising to over $50/0z
"Surprise #7 A Decline in the U.S. Dollar Spurs an Advance In Gold (to $3,000/oz) and a Ramp of +50% in Bitcoin (to $40,000) - But Silver Is The Big Winner As It Doubles to Over $50/oz - Over easy policy, excessive liquidity, higher inflation and a rapid
rollout in the Covid-19 vaccine powers the prices of cryptocurrencies and precious metals higher. Silver, however, is the league leader as the rapidly rising demand for silver in industrial applications creates a supply crunch late in the year. Another challenge on the supply
The Bitter Irony Is That A Stock Named GameStop May Stop The Game
* Too many traders speculating today are throwing "Hail Marys" in their parents' basement - thinking that they will become the next Tom Brady.
* Bubbles rarely resolve themselves
without inflicting alot of financial damage -this will likely be no different than the collapse in the last 3 speculative cycles.
* 'We have met the enemy and he is us.'
* I remain very negative on the market outlook and I am now in a short and hold phase. @jimcramer@tomkeene
Jan 28, 2021 | 06:08 PM EST DOUG KASS
Here's a Ludicrous Idea
My Ludacris -- ludicrous -- forecast is that either Citadel or JPMorgan (JPM) takes over Robinhood and pays off their (GME) trading losses.
Jan 28, 2021 | 05:29 PM EST DOUG KASS
My Two Bits: Will This Be the Arrow That Kills Robinhood?
While I promised not to discuss ideology with regard to Reddit, Robinhood and the retail investors' trading platforms ... I highly suspect that the bulk of (GME) buying was large funds
, watching the private boards and then piling on.
Robinhood is toast, in my view. Dead.
Stopping clients overnight from buying and only allowing them to close positions? Those that just bought a few hours or days before? Guaranteed losses. Cue a lot of lawyers. I'll take the