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1 Feb, 5 tweets, 4 min read
Coming up on @realmoney
A Silver Lining
* I am bullish on the price of silver and gold (and I have large holdings in both)
* This morning silver is +$2.80/0z (or +10.4%) to $29.73oz!
* In my "15 Surprises for 2021" I predicted that silver would outshine both gold and bitcoin
- rising to over $50/0z

"Surprise #7 A Decline in the U.S. Dollar Spurs an Advance In Gold (to $3,000/oz) and a Ramp of +50% in Bitcoin (to $40,000) - But Silver Is The Big Winner As It Doubles to Over $50/oz - Over easy policy, excessive liquidity, higher inflation and a rapid
rollout in the Covid-19 vaccine powers the prices of cryptocurrencies and precious metals higher. Silver, however, is the league leader as the rapidly rising demand for silver in industrial applications creates a supply crunch late in the year. Another challenge on the supply
side for silver is that more than half of mined silver supply is a by-product of zinc, lead and copper mining, making it tough for miners to meet the surging excess proportional demand for silver. Precious metals and crypto currency prices peak in the third quarter."

-
15 Surprises for 2021 realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/kass… @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @ferrotv @MelissaLeeCNBC @saraeisen @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @DougKass

Dougie Kass Profile picture
31 Jan
Coming up on @realmoney tomorrow

The Bitter Irony Is That A Stock Named GameStop May Stop The Game

* Too many traders speculating today are throwing "Hail Marys" in their parents' basement - thinking that they will become the next Tom Brady.
* Bubbles rarely resolve themselves
without inflicting alot of financial damage -this will likely be no different than the collapse in the last 3 speculative cycles.
* 'We have met the enemy and he is us.'
* I remain very negative on the market outlook and I am now in a short and hold phase. @jimcramer @tomkeene
@carlquintanilla @riskreversal @SullyCNBC @bobpisani @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @saraeisen @herbgreenberg @convertbond @riskreversal @scottwapner @ferrotv
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
29 Jan
@realmoney @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @tomkeene @jimcramer @SaraEisen

Jan 28, 2021 | 06:08 PM EST DOUG KASS
Here's a Ludicrous Idea
My Ludacris -- ludicrous -- forecast is that either Citadel or JPMorgan (JPM) takes over Robinhood and pays off their (GME) trading losses.
Jan 28, 2021 | 05:29 PM EST DOUG KASS
My Two Bits: Will This Be the Arrow That Kills Robinhood?
While I promised not to discuss ideology with regard to Reddit, Robinhood and the retail investors' trading platforms ... I highly suspect that the bulk of (GME) buying was large funds
, watching the private boards and then piling on.
Robinhood is toast, in my view. Dead.
Stopping clients overnight from buying and only allowing them to close positions? Those that just bought a few hours or days before? Guaranteed losses. Cue a lot of lawyers. I'll take the
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
27 Jan
@realmoney
Jan 27, 2021 | 10:40 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Fundamental Difference Between Being Short GameStop and Tesla
* Many are becoming hyperbolic and are ignoring the facts

I am seeing some comparisons made between (GME) and (TSLA) on the chat sites, on Twitter and e
lsewhere.

Some suggest that if GME can go to $380 why can't TSLA go to $2000?

Of course anything is possible - but I prefer dealing with facts and stats, especially as it relates to short interest which seems to be the primary reason why GME has rocketed into the
stratosphere.

The short position in GME is about 70 million shares, or 140% of the share float of 47 million shares.

By contrast, the short position in TSLA is only about 60 million shares compared to the float of 760 million shares, or only 8% of TSLA's float.
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
27 Jan
Speculative, heavily shorted gewgaws zoomed higher -- perhaps taking the oxygen from traditional high octane/growth equities.

Meanwhile, some of my fundamental shorts like ($PTON) (-$9.35) and ($CVNA) (-$11.44) cratered today. I have been adding consistently to
these over the last few weeks Disney (DIS) fell by -$2.33. M inexplicably rose by nearly +$2. Homebuilders were mixed.

One of my core and basic shorting tenets is never to short a stock in which short interest exceeds five to six days of average trading volume
(over the last month) and to avoid shorts in which company short interest exceeds 5% to 6% of the company's float.

The short squeezes in ($GME) and the other shiny objects of speculation over the last month are testimony to this strategy of risk control and provides validity
Read 8 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
22 Jan
@realmoney
Jan 21, 2021 | 04:07 PM EST DOUG KASS
What, Me Worry?
* A generation which ignores history has no past and no future

Like Wednesday, today was another day of divergences -- in which the averages scooted ahead nicely without the soldiers participating.

Specifically
, in today's trading session, though the S&P index rose by 10 and the Nasdaq by 110 handles, market breadth was 13-18 negative.

The "generals" - Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) , Alphabet (GOOGL) , Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) -- continued to upstage the rest of the market.
My "Uncle" Bob Farrell would not be happy with this divergence:

Rule #7: Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.

Translation: Breadth is important. A rally on narrow breadth indicates limited participation and
Read 6 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
21 Jan
@realmoney
Most should not be short stocks.
I have made a living shorting stocks - but it takes a lot of conviction, research and patience.
The same observers who questioned my sanity when I went all in long in March, 2020, are confident in their extreme optimism today and
critical of my all-in short call now.
Based on the historical and traditional metrics that have survived a century of investing (in my chart in "Sell Stocks Now") , stocks are as overbought and overvalued as in any point in the last ten years. Speculation is rhyming with past
tops.
In my career I have rarely seen such a favorable reward v risk ratio to the downside as I see today - for reasons mentioned previously.
The reversal of opinion and the thriving bullish "Group Stink" consensus reminds me of a phrase I like to mention - "price has a way of
Read 6 tweets

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