Democratic impeachment managers veered off course at end. Had impressed Wednesday portraying how ugly, violent Capitol riot was. Fell short arguing that Trump was responsible. 'Wednesday was more about inflaming emotions, not proving Trump directed,' said one senator. 1/9
On Thursday, managers moved into political realm and probably lost support. Attempted to link Capitol riot to 2016 Trump campaign rallies and controversies during Trump presidency. Raskin called it 'Donald Trump's continuing pattern and practice of inciting violence.' 2/9
That turned off Republicans. They lived through those events and do not subscribe to Democratic/media characterization of them. So managers probably took a step backward on Thursday. 3/9 washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/byron-…
Now it's Trump team's turn. They won't need long to make defense. Three parts: 1) They will argue that when Trump, in Jan 6 speech, used martial language, specifically 'fight like hell,' he was employing common political rhetoric and not inciting violence. 4/9
Trump team will point to big Democrats--Biden, Schumer, Sanders, and, yes, Raskin and Swalwell--using exact same phrase. Those Democrats did not intend to incite physical violence, team will argue, and neither did Trump. 5/9 washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/byron-…
2) Trump defenders will point to personal agency of rioters. Yes, some facing charges say they acted only because Trump told them to. But Trump team will point to vast majority of people who attended Ellipse rally and did not go on to storm the Capitol. 6/9
Those people heard the same message from Trump on Jan 6, and heard same speeches, read same tweets in weeks leading up to that, and yet did not ransack Capitol. Perhaps key to understanding the violence is to focus on the listener, not the speaker. 7/9
3) Finally, Trump team will remind senators that the trial is unconstitutional. Yes, 56 senators voted the other way, and trial has gone forward. But 44 Republicans, with some expert support, still believe it is unconstitutional. Defense will make sure they remember that. 8/9
That's it. Trump defense is not that complicated. Question is whether Castor and Schoen can make it effectively. But even if they can't, Republicans have already thought through these issues. Which means, barring huge surprise, Trump will be acquitted. 9/9 End.

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More from @ByronYork

7 Feb
Dilemma for writer Virginia Heffernan. When it snows at her 'pandemic getaway,' helpful neighbors plow her driveway unbidden. Do a 'great job.' What a nice thing! They don't do this in the city! Only problem: Neighbors support Trump. 1/10 news.yahoo.com/column-trumpit…
Heffernan frets. Realizes 'I owe them thanks.' But Trump! Heffernan becomes suspicious: This could be, like, a terrorist thing: 'Hezbollah, the Shiite Islamist political party in Lebanon, also gives things away for free.' OMG! They're Trumpite terrorists! 2/10
Or they're Trumpite Nazis! After all, French collaborators said the Nazis were very polis, French for 'polite.' 'So when I accept generosity...acknowledging the legitimate kindness...am I also sealing us in as fellow travelers who are very polis to each other?' 3/10
Read 10 tweets
4 Feb
Capitol riot was four weeks ago. Still much we don't know. Yes, can piece together this and that from various sources, but Capitol Police quiet on some basic facts of the investigation. 1/7 washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/byron-…
Questions I submitted to Capitol Police: How many Capitol Police officers were injured in riot? What were their injuries? Their condition? Did Capitol Police confiscate any firearms from rioters? If so, how many, what types? 2/7 washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/byron-…
What is status of investigation into killing of Officer Sicknick? Is there an autopsy report for Officer Sicknick? If so, will it be released to public, or will its key findings be released to public? 3/7 washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/byron-…
Read 7 tweets
30 Jan
Jonathan Turley asks: Why hasn't the House held hearings on the impeachment charge against former President Trump? Why hasn't it sought to gather and present evidence to the public for its article of 'incitement to insurrection'? 1/6 jonathanturley.org/2021/01/30/why…
Yes, it's getting things backwards to hold hearings after impeachment vote, rather than before. But Speaker Pelosi has thrown out all the other rules when it comes to impeaching Trump. Why not post-impeachment hearings? 2/6
You could say the House is saving its case for the Senate trial. But why? It shouldn't be a surprise. Should public be able to hear, read, absorb information in time leading up to trial? Of course. That's how House did it in first Trump impeachment, BTW. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
Schumer argues late impeachment must go ahead because if not, a president could commit crime, quickly resign, and bingo! -- immune from impeachment. Future president will commit heinous crime, immediately quit, and get away scot free. 1/4 washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-s…
First, that's not what Trump did. Form your own opinion on crime part, but he did not resign. Second, presidential resignation is pretty big deal, isn't it? Presidents extremely reluctant to do it. Only happened once. 2/4
Third, what about criminal liability? Dems appear to have no interest, but Trump is still liable to prosecution. Could have serious consequences, whereas guilty impeachment verdict at most would bar Trump from holding future office he likely won't run for, anyway. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
16 Jan
Democrats have created lots of problems for themselves by rushing to impeach a president who will be a former president before trial begins. Senate Dems want to confirm Biden appointments, get started on agenda. But the trial... 1/6 washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
WP reports Dems want quick trial, get it over with, get on to business. Maybe split days, impeachment and other biz. But that would just prolong the proceedings. Maybe Pelosi can play tricks with timing, delay sending to Senate. She's done it before! 2/6 washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
Now Democrats want Senate Republicans to help get them out of impeachment jam. Really? Why should Republicans do that? 3/6
Read 6 tweets
9 Jan
Looks very much like Trump impeachment will happen. House GOP expects Democrats to move ahead next week, possibly Wednesday. 'It appears the train has left the station,' said one GOP source. 1/6
In 2019 House GOP leaders took pride in fact that zero Republicans supported impeachment. Unlikely that will happen again, even though, issues aside, many think it is crazy to impeach a president with days left in office. 2/6
House GOP leadership has not yet had conference call with members, so it's unclear what most think. Unclear how many would support Democratic articles. Probably a low number. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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