Thread by @Noahpinion

1/Here's a @bopinion post about why we need a National Population Strategy.

People don't realize it, but our country is headed for the kind of rapid aging that other rich countries have experienced.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

2/First let's talk about fertility rates.

America used to have substantially higher fertility than other rich countries. That is pretty much over.

3/Much of this is due to a huge decline among Hispanic women's fertility rates.

(Which in turn was driven by the end of large-scale Hispanic immigration.)

childtrends.org/publications/h…

4/Even before COVID, all major U.S. racial and ethnic groups (except for native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders!) had below-replacement fertility.

Basically, no one is having a lot of kids anymore.

5/Now let's talk about immigration.

My colleague @foxjust is optimistic that Trump didn't hurt immigration much:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

6/But even though the number of new permanent residents has held up, the number of visas issued was falling before COVID, and COVID made it fall more.

A lot fewer people are coming in.

7/So as a result of falling immigration and falling fertility, our country is getting older.

We're now down to about 4 working-age people to support each retiree.

8/Fewer workers per retiree means less consumption to go around.

In financial terms it means a greater burden on our health and pension systems.

In personal terms it means more and more hours devoted to eldercare.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

9/Now sure, we can partially compensate for population aging with stuff like:
1. More automation
2. Having old people work longer
3. Encouraging more people to go into the labor force

Countries do all these things, and they do have some effect!

nber.org/papers/w22310

10/But ultimately these are stopgaps -- delaying actions against the onrushing gray tide.

We need a National Population Strategy to keep our population up.

11/Now I'm not saying we need ONE BILLION AMERICANS, as @mattyglesias calls for.

But if we want to keep the 330 million we've got, we need some more warm bodies!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/book-review-…

12/Encouraging higher immigration is the obvious first step. We can do it right now, it has an immediate effect.

But in addition to immigration, child credits like the ones Biden, Romney, Booker, and others are now proposing could give fertility a modest boost!

13/Here is @lymanstoneky with a roundup of research showing that giving money to people with kids does make people have (slightly) more kids.

ifstudies.org/blog/pro-natal…

14/Anyway, we need to think of the nation's population not as just something that happens TO us, but that something we control! And whether you want One Billion Americans or not, we should definitely NOT let that population fall.

(end)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…