1/Today's Substack post is about Biden's chances of becoming a truly transformational president -- someone who will move U.S. economic policy onto a leftward track, as Reagan once moved it onto a rightward track.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/is-biden-the…
2/Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has a theory that says we're due for a "reconstructive" President who will define a new paradigm for the next few decades.

thenation.com/article/archiv…
3/Like most people, I thought Biden would be an incrementalist centrist who would get little done other than restoring competence and morality to the executive branch (and that alone would have been plenty of reason to vote for him!).
4/When I read Skowronek's theory, I read it as a prediction of a Bernie or Warren presidency.

I did not imagine that Biden could be a transformational president.

BUT, it's looking like he just might be one!
5/Check out @mehdirhasan's rundown of Biden's rapid blitz.

msnbc.com/opinion/biden-…
6/Or check out @drvolts' rundown of Biden's climate actions!

volts.wtf/p/biden-is-bli…
7/Biden has done more executive actions in the first 3 weeks of his presidency than Obama and Trump combined at the equivalent mark. Here's a list.

cnn.com/interactive/20…
8/His legislative agenda is breathtakingly bold. It's -- dare I say it? -- Rooseveltian.
9/Now, Biden might be stymied on the legislative front. Mitch McConnell might filibuster much of his agenda to death (though I'm remaining cautiously optimistic this will not happen).
10/But remember, this sort of happened to Ronald Reagan too!
11/Reagan's true transformational influence came from:

1. Executive actions and appointments that weakened unions and regulation, etc.

2. An enduring ideological shift, which led eventually to Clinton's welfare reform and deregulations.
12/In the same way, Biden might usher in a new age where economic progressivism -- in the form of government sending people cash -- is the norm, and leaders of BOTH parties compete to see who can do it better.

Maybe this is the first glimmer:

washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021…
13/Maybe individual leaders' temperaments and preconceptions are less important than the necessities of the times in which they lead.

Maybe it's not Biden. Maybe it's COVID making America finally realize that Reaganism is inadequate to the challenges we face.
14/In other words, maybe Skowronek is right -- maybe it's simply TIME for a transformational President. Maybe Biden just happens to be the person that the Hand of Destiny tapped on the shoulder.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/is-biden-the…
And remember, if you like this kind of content, sign up for my free email list and get it delivered direction to your inbox! :-)

noahpinion.substack.com

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Noah Smith 🐇

Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Noahpinion

13 Feb
1/OK folks, let's talk about BITCOIN!!

Many many people have proclaimed the death of Bitcoin over the years, but it looks like it's here to stay.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/triumph-of-t…
2/Remember the big Bitcoin bubble and crash of late 2017/2018?

Well if you bought at the TOP of that bubble, you've now TRIPLED your investment.
3/In fact, this is typical. Asset classes that experience bubbles and crashes usually recover.

Here's the NASDAQ (in inflation-adjusted terms). It's way past its 2000 bubble peak!
Read 23 tweets
12 Feb
1/Here's a @bopinion post about why we need a National Population Strategy.

People don't realize it, but our country is headed for the kind of rapid aging that other rich countries have experienced.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/First let's talk about fertility rates.

America used to have substantially higher fertility than other rich countries. That is pretty much over.
3/Much of this is due to a huge decline among Hispanic women's fertility rates.

(Which in turn was driven by the end of large-scale Hispanic immigration.)

childtrends.org/publications/h…
Read 14 tweets
9 Feb
In today's @bopinion post, I explain why we need to do more than just give people cash. We need to make sure that everyone has access to affordable housing, health care, transportation, and nutritious food.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
This reiterates what I've been saying for a long time, but it's also a response to @elidourado's post on the same topic!

medium.com/cgo-benchmark/…
Whereas @elidourado focuses on using new *technology* to get low-income Americans the basic necessities of life, I argue that in the crucial areas of housing and health care and transportation, what's really needed is better *policy*.
Read 5 tweets
7 Feb
1/So, economists are debating whether Biden's COVID relief bill is too large.

I think this debate has been misframed somewhat, by thinking of the bill as "stimulus". In fact, it's more like retroactive social insurance.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/covid-relief…
2/In this thread, Olivier Blanchard uses Keynesian concepts such as the output gap and the fiscal multiplier to analyze the size of the bill, and argues that it's too large.

3/The fear is that if the bill is too large relative to the "output gap", then the economy will experience rapid inflation, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates, which will hurt growth.

Read 12 tweets
2 Feb
1/Today's @bopinion post is about debt and green investment.

There is no reason to fear deficit spending for this kind of investment.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/John Kerry recently declared that we would do “so much economic investment made by people up and down the economic food chain that no future president can reverse it.”

That's going to require a lot of borrowing. But that's OK!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3/First of all, the actual amount Biden wants to spend -- $170 billion a year -- is very modest compared with the amount of government investment we did in the 50s and 60s.
Read 10 tweets
1 Feb
1/Here's a thread of my recent newsletter about Taiwan!

Americans have very little "consciousness" of Taiwan, compared to Japan and South Korea. That needs to change!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/taiwan-is-a-…
2/How much does the average American know about Taiwan? Precious little, I'd say. Except for bubble tea, most Americans probably wouldn't even recognize Taiwanese food!
3/Some Americans think of Taiwan as part of China (China's government certainly thinks it is!). This may stop them from thinking about Taiwan as a country.

But most Taiwanese people don't consider themselves "Chinese" in the national sense.
Read 31 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!