1/Today's Substack post is about Biden's chances of becoming a truly transformational president -- someone who will move U.S. economic policy onto a leftward track, as Reagan once moved it onto a rightward track.
2/Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has a theory that says we're due for a "reconstructive" President who will define a new paradigm for the next few decades.
3/Like most people, I thought Biden would be an incrementalist centrist who would get little done other than restoring competence and morality to the executive branch (and that alone would have been plenty of reason to vote for him!).
4/When I read Skowronek's theory, I read it as a prediction of a Bernie or Warren presidency.
I did not imagine that Biden could be a transformational president.
BUT, it's looking like he just might be one!
5/Check out @mehdirhasan's rundown of Biden's rapid blitz.
8/His legislative agenda is breathtakingly bold. It's -- dare I say it? -- Rooseveltian.
9/Now, Biden might be stymied on the legislative front. Mitch McConnell might filibuster much of his agenda to death (though I'm remaining cautiously optimistic this will not happen).
10/But remember, this sort of happened to Ronald Reagan too!
11/Reagan's true transformational influence came from:
1. Executive actions and appointments that weakened unions and regulation, etc.
2. An enduring ideological shift, which led eventually to Clinton's welfare reform and deregulations.
12/In the same way, Biden might usher in a new age where economic progressivism -- in the form of government sending people cash -- is the norm, and leaders of BOTH parties compete to see who can do it better.
13/Maybe individual leaders' temperaments and preconceptions are less important than the necessities of the times in which they lead.
Maybe it's not Biden. Maybe it's COVID making America finally realize that Reaganism is inadequate to the challenges we face.
14/In other words, maybe Skowronek is right -- maybe it's simply TIME for a transformational President. Maybe Biden just happens to be the person that the Hand of Destiny tapped on the shoulder.
In today's @bopinion post, I explain why we need to do more than just give people cash. We need to make sure that everyone has access to affordable housing, health care, transportation, and nutritious food.
Whereas @elidourado focuses on using new *technology* to get low-income Americans the basic necessities of life, I argue that in the crucial areas of housing and health care and transportation, what's really needed is better *policy*.
2/In this thread, Olivier Blanchard uses Keynesian concepts such as the output gap and the fiscal multiplier to analyze the size of the bill, and argues that it's too large.
3/The fear is that if the bill is too large relative to the "output gap", then the economy will experience rapid inflation, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates, which will hurt growth.
2/John Kerry recently declared that we would do “so much economic investment made by people up and down the economic food chain that no future president can reverse it.”
That's going to require a lot of borrowing. But that's OK!
3/First of all, the actual amount Biden wants to spend -- $170 billion a year -- is very modest compared with the amount of government investment we did in the 50s and 60s.
2/How much does the average American know about Taiwan? Precious little, I'd say. Except for bubble tea, most Americans probably wouldn't even recognize Taiwanese food!
3/Some Americans think of Taiwan as part of China (China's government certainly thinks it is!). This may stop them from thinking about Taiwan as a country.
But most Taiwanese people don't consider themselves "Chinese" in the national sense.