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12 Feb, 9 tweets, 4 min read
This will wreak havoc with redistricting timelines. Many states have constitutionally mandated deadlines for drawing new districts before then & are likely to face litigation over them. Some could even see legislatures lose control over the process to courts & backup commissions
⬇️ The delay means we’re more likely to see redistricting blitzkriegs where partisan mapmakers wait until the last minute to release proposed maps before passing them, giving the public little time to mobilize against flawed or outright bad maps
More news related to the delayed release of the census' reapportionment and redistricting data
NEW: My story on what the census' delayed release of redistricting data until at least Sept. 30 means for the 2021-2022 redistricting cycle. Many states now have legally mandated deadlines that they will be unable to meet, throwing redistricting into chaos dailykos.com/stories/2021/2…
These maps show the partisan control over redistricting following the 2020 elections. GOP is poised to draw 2-3 times as many congressional districts as Dems. States such as Illinois could see changes in partisan control due to census data release delays dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
Illinois mandates that lawmakers draw new legislative districts by June 30 following a redistricting year. If they don't, a backup commission takes over with 50-50 odds of the tiebreaker being a Dem or Rep. Thus, the GOP could have an even chance at gerrymandering this blue state
However, there's some ambiguity over whether the delayed release of census data means the redistricting year is 2020, in which case the backup commission would be very likely to kick in, or whether 2021 would be the redistricting year & give lawmakers until 2022 to draw new maps
This delayed release in census redistricting data could have a big silver lining if it means there's time for federal Dems to pass #HR1 & ban gerrymandering in time for 2022. Currently, their sweeping election reform bill wouldn't ban it until the 2030s(!) dailykos.com/story/2021/1/1…
While it might be too late for Congress to mandate that every state establish an independent redistricting commission to take over for the 2020s, there should be time to pass statutory criteria banning gerrymandering & requiring partisan fairness, which courts could then enforce

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
27 Jan
This could mean that the release of population data at the census block level, which is what is used in redistricting itself, may not be released until after April 30. That could cause serious problems for states whose constitutions mandate redistricting deadlines weeks afterward
It appears highly likely that New Jersey will use its current legislative maps for 2021 & won't redistrict their legislature until 2023. Virginia may end up doing the same for November. Several other states with early summer deadlines for redistricting could be thrown into chaos
The census delaying the release of redistricting data this year is a good reason why states should change their redistricting deadlines to make them more flexible in similar future situations, but amending state constitutions is a lengthy process, & it's too late to do so by 2022
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
22 Jan
5 of 14 New Hampshire GOP state senators have introduced a bill that would gerrymander the state's Electoral College votes by assigning them by gerrymandered congressional district. GOP legislators proposed this same scheme this month in MI & WI too gencourt.state.nh.us/bill_status/bi…
In a 4th state, the GOP is proposing *ending* the allocation of electoral votes congressional district: Nebraska, where Biden won the 2nd District & its one electoral vote.

GOP could pass these power grabs in NE & NH now, but MI & WI depend on GOP winning 2022 governors' races
An important point: These GOP Electoral College manipulation schemes aren't even guaranteed to help the GOP, & so much of it is just a knee-jerk reaction to the specific manner of Biden's 2020 win. But eventually, the GOP may get smarter about these power grabs & actually do it
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
20 Jan
Today, we restored majority rule by inaugurating a Democratic president & Senate majority that won with millions more votes than the GOP. It's been 4 straight years of GOP minority rule in the White House combined with 6 straight years of GOP minority rule in the Senate
But don't ignore how close we came to total GOP minority rule.

Had Trump won just 42,921 more votes, the Senate GOP won just 1,018 more votes, & GOP not lost anti-gerrymandering lawsuits last decade, they'd have held the White House, Senate, & House despite millions fewer votes
American democracy survived the Trump era, but not because it's resilient. We barely scraped by, & the threat of far-right authoritarianism is far from over when GOP leaders of all stripes tell the Big Lie with impunity that the 2020 election was stolen.

We have much work to do
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
19 Jan
Senate Dems just introduced the most important democracy reform bill since the 1965 Voting Rights Act, joining House Dems. I detailed the major components here, including sweeping voting access expansions, banning House gerrymandering, & public financing: dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Note that this bill doesn't include a restoration of the Voting Rights Act, which is planned as separate legislation, but this bill does include a reaffirmed commitment to restore the VRA. You can read the section-by-section Senate bill summary here: democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
Here's the full list of major provisions in the sweeping democracy-reform bill that House & now Senate Dems have introduced as the first bill of the new session. These would be the biggest expansion of voting access & fair elections since the 1965 VRA dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
18 Jan
Martin Luther King Jr.'s "Give Us the Ballot" speech (May 17, 1957).

King called the right to vote the most critical achievement of the civil rights movement because it was the key right that made securing all the other rights possible.

Excerpts below:
"3 years ago the Supreme Court of this nation rendered ... a decision which will long be stenciled on the mental sheets of succeeding generations. For all men of goodwill, this May 17 decision [Brown v. Board] came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of human captivity."
"Unfortunately, this noble & sublime decision has not gone without opposition. This opposition has often risen to ominous proportions. Many states have risen up in open defiance. The legislative halls of the South ring loud with such words as 'interposition' & 'nullification.'"
Read 13 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
14 Jan
Really bad news for fair redistricting in Arizona, where GOP Gov. Ducey stacked the court commission that screens applicants for the redistricting commission by not appointing any Dems to the former, meaning a closeted Republican could get chosen as the redistricting tiebreaker
Arizona is the same state where, after the independent chair sided with Dems in 2011 to pass districts that gave neither party a sizable unfair advantage, GOP tried to fire the chair, & when that failed, tried to get SCOTUS to strike down the commission so they could gerrymander
Arizona's GOP Gov. Doug Ducey is the very same governor who packed the state Supreme Court in 2016 by adding 2 more seats & later manipulated the nominating commission so he could install another arch-conservative hardliner to cement far-right control slate.com/news-and-polit…
Read 4 tweets

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