Alina Chan Profile picture
13 Feb, 12 tweets, 6 min read
More on the @WHO #originsofcovid investigation...
“disagreements over patient records and other issues were so tense that they sometimes erupted into shouts among the typically mild-mannered scientists on both sides” nytimes.com/2021/02/12/wor…
“rules to thwart outbreaks in China meant that the team could not gather with their counterparts for meals and informal talks”

Essentially, there was no chance for private communication.
“Fabian Leendertz, a German.. member of the team.. said the team agreed to include the frozen food theory among its hypotheses “to respect, a bit, the findings” of the Chinese scientists.”

Yes, and now Chinese media are reporting that covid likely originated via imported 🧊🐠
The #PopsicleOrigins doublespeak is pretty amazing. On the one hand, no one should be worried about the frozen food they handle despite widespread pandemic, but on the other hand SARS infection by 🧊🍖 is so likely that it could’ve started this entire pandemic 😂 Which is it!?
I’d probably start shouting too if my teammates voted to endorse a public investigation of #PopsicleOrigins (while ruling out #LabOrigins because WIV said so) & China wouldn’t provide access to actual data or samples to confirm when the outbreak actually started in Wuhan.
Starting to feel like this is a Real Origins of Covid reality TV show. 6 months of will they actually get to go inside China, 2 weeks of touring Wuhan, 3-hour presser floating #PopsicleOrigins, within 48 hours all origin hypotheses back on the table #RealOriginsofCOVID
Dwyer “said that gaining access to the raw data was especially important since only half of the 174 cases [Dec 2019] had exposure to the Huanan market”
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
“We might be having a talk about cold chain and they might be more firm about what the data shows than what we might have been, but that's natural.”

What I hope the #PopsicleOrigins scientist debates had looked like...
Dwyer used the same word “unanimous” as Daszak on their decision to rule out #laborigins but these decisions/votes were based on aggregated analyses provided by China and a few hours of chatting with Wuhan scientists. Based on their 3h presser, I imagine 50% time is translation.
And based on this insight, I feel like some of these decisions or votes may not have been fully grounded in scientific principles, especially when ministry of foreign affairs people are in the room.
WHO investigation team is already half Beijing-picked Chinese scientists and even the non-China half was curated by Beijing from a list provided by WHO. Add on making decisions or voting based on “respecting a bit” the Chinese scientists who are under orders from the gov...
Based on the WHO investigation, I had to add a new F pathway #PopsicleOrigins for nature-based origins of COVID-19.

WHO is only investigating origin hypotheses A and F based on what can be clearly discerned from their press conferences. Won't be able to detect B, C, D, or E.

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More from @Ayjchan

14 Feb
Interview of @Peterfoodsafety @WHO #originsofcovid investigation. On lab origins, “this would not be something that this team, or I believe even WHO alone, would be able to move forward on. That would have to be, I believe, a United Nations-wide approach...”
Well, we just heard it (or read it), and I agree with this assessment- if the international community wants an investigation of lab origins, this team and even WHO cannot be the ones investigating. We need a separate, credible, independent investigation into #laborigins of covid.
What are we waiting for?
Lab leak is a plausible hypothesis that should be investigated regardless of how likely or unlikely.
Read 4 tweets
14 Feb
Experts keep telling me how useful it is to have Daszak on the team because he likely knows more about the WIV than the average person, but he's already gotten 2 major things wrong: when RaTG13's genome was sequenced + whether the WIV had bats in the lab.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Unfortunately, this approach seems to have influenced the WHO investigation. The team, during a 3-hour press conference in China, dismissed lab leak as "extremely unlikely" based on what Wuhan scientists told them, believing that only 3 SARS viruses have been isolated in the WIV.
I was at first worried that most scientists would just fall in line with the WHO "findings" but I'm glad that experts are speaking up about the lack of rigor in this investigation. Same article in the Mail on Sunday has quotes from several top experts. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Read 8 tweets
11 Feb
I think, that was a good try @WHO to get actual data from China.

But now that it looks like that's not going to work, we should be setting up independent and credible investigations into the origins.
If @WHO is going to investigate Italy, SE Asia, and #popsicleorigins

We need actual teams that can investigate zoonotic spillover and #laborigins - preferably with international representation and absence of COIs/pre-existing relationships that could discredit investigation.
One major weakness of the WHO investigation was that there was no other ongoing investigation that could hold it accountable or that WHO could use as leverage to force more transparency from China. No, the Lancet investigation headed by Peter Daszak obvs doesn't count.
Read 5 tweets
11 Feb
Dominic Dwyer, a member of the WHO team, on whether the covid virus could've originated from a lab accident: “Now, whether we were shown everything? You can never know. The group wasn’t designed to go and do a forensic examination of lab practice.”
nature.com/articles/d4158…
WHO team chatted w Wuhan scientists, voted if lab origins were likely. This doesn't count as an investigation into #laborigins I hope @WHO knows that. "you don't want to jump to a conclusion based on several hours of conversation with Chinese scientists"
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
Jesse Bloom, virologist @fredhutch "surprised to see some members of the team dismiss the accidental lab leak theory while seeming to suggest, without any specific evidence, the possibility that frozen food might have played a role."
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
Read 36 tweets
11 Feb
On the recent paper describing new SARS2-like viruses in Thailand, the big takeaways for me:

The closest relatives to SARS2 are still from inside China whether you count it by genome, RdRp, or Spike RBD.

The ones from Thailand don't use human ACE2.

nature.com/articles/s4146…
I think sampling bats for viruses is worthwhile as long as care is taken not to introduce SARS2 from human personnel into wildlife while going on these expeditions.

BUT I don't think that hunting for bat CoVs in SE Asia is going to answer how this pandemic got started in Wuhan.
You're just going further and further away from ground zero. Wuhan (top dot), Kunming, Yunnan, China (middle dot) where the Mojiang miners and RaTG13 was collected, and Chachoengsao, Thailand (bottom dot) where the new bat CoVs were collected.
Read 12 tweets
10 Feb
“Daszak responded to reports that the U.S. government wishes to independently verify any findings of the WHO team, by impugning the motives of President Joe Biden and casting aspersions on the integrity of the U.S. intelligence community.” rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-who-covi…
Spot-on analysis by @RogerPielkeJr of why the press conference is problematic for @WHO “A future departure from initial claims.. can easily be seen (and spun) as delegitimizing of the committee’s work. So the origins committee is now effectively locked in to these conclusions..”
Please see the @StateDept response to the @WHO #originsofcovid investigation here state.gov/briefings/depa…
Read 4 tweets

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