Some thoughts on the current market - A thread.
1) As someone who has gone through the 2017/18 boom and bust, I remember a few lessons: I didn't take enough profits because I kept thinking/hoping the market can still grow.
1) As someone who has gone through the 2017/18 boom and bust, I remember a few lessons: I didn't take enough profits because I kept thinking/hoping the market can still grow.
2) There was constantly the narrative that institutions are coming - and they did come, but now, not in 17/18. Things take longer than we like.
So lets look deeper. Who are the users right now in #DeFi? Degens + crypto hedge funds and whales who are making a killing.
So lets look deeper. Who are the users right now in #DeFi? Degens + crypto hedge funds and whales who are making a killing.
3) Lets be realistic, neither 'serious' institutions nor retail will come into $ETH in this cycle. Institutions are just starting to get comfortable with #Bitcoin. $ETH and #DeFi for them won't happen in this cycle. For retail this is all both too complex and too expensive.
4) Which means eventually the fun will stop. Will it come back? For sure, I 100% believe in the fundamentals of $ETH and #DeFi - but there is a time to hold, to take profits and a time to accumulate. The best #DeFi buy opportunities were in December, not today.
5) So what do I think will happen in the short term? My instinct tells me we still have 1, maybe if shit gets crazy even 2 steps up in this cycle. $BTC just keeps on getting good news. The previous ATH in the last cycle was roughly 20x from the one before: From ~$1k to ~$20k.
6) I highly doubt it will do another 20x from its previous ATH (look at Market Cap impact at $400k) but its not impossible and it could still do a 10x. That would be a BTC top of $200k. If that happens, the whole market will go crazy and follow it up.
8) I am closely following @ercwl's Froth Barometer for this. If @lindsaylohan posts about shitcoins like $TRX, it's definitely a big red warning sign. My gut feeling though is that we haven't yet seen the craziest stuff... The day I see someone on @CNBC talk about farming, I sell
8) Either way, this cycle will end, so whatever you do, don't forget to take profits so you can accumulate in the 2 boring years that will follow.
@RyanSAdams I know you are writing thoughts on this for @BanklessHQ
@freshmuse @RuCister @QwQiao @CoinRuleHQ @fillbeforeshill
@RyanSAdams I know you are writing thoughts on this for @BanklessHQ
@freshmuse @RuCister @QwQiao @CoinRuleHQ @fillbeforeshill
Ops I missed 7) and got 8) twice - oh well
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