French vaccines – booster thread.
In my last big French vax thread 2 weeks ago, I asked why the French programme was so slow. I’m pleased to say things have improved (a little) since then. 1/10
Here is an interesting fact. France, as of yesterday, has given more 2nd injections than Britain – 617,715 Fr to 570,094 UK. In other words France (though rightly criticised) has now fully vaccinated more people against Covid than Britain (which has been rightly praised). 2/10
This is explained, of course, by the fact that the UK is delaying all 2nd jabs for up to 12 weeks. In terms of first injections, the UK (with same population but started 3 weeks earlier) has vaxxed over 14m people. France now stands at 2.83m. 3/10
I still have doubts about the French effort. There are many stories of cancellations/ booking problems at local level. But the roll-out has accelerated in the last 2 weeks, helped partly by the arrival of easier-to-use AstraZeneca doses (approved for under-65’s only in Fr) 4/10
Thus…
France has given 1.23m shots in the first 12 days of Feb, compared to 1.5m in the first 35 days from 27 Dec. By the end of Jan it had used only just over 50% of the doses that it received from the EU supply scheme. As of today, it has used 74%. 5/10
In the last 2 days alone, France has given over 330,000 jabs – taking both 1st and 2nd doses together. In Feb so far it has given 1,235,112 shots. To reach its target of 4,000,000 shots this month, it now has to jab at 178,000 a day – about the rate of the last 48 hours. BUT 6/10
France remains very poor in its weekend vax rate – eg less than 20,000 jabs last Sun. Unless Fr speeds up on ALL days, it will miss the Feb 4,000,000 target. Some help is on the way…From 25 Feb all médicins traitants (GP’s) will be able to give AZ shots to under 65’s. 7/10
From early March 18,000 out of France’s 21,000 local pharmacies (those equipped to do so) will also join the AZ vax rollout. Tens of millions more doses of all kinds are expected to arrive in March, April and May. BUT…. 8/10
A glaring French vax anomaly will persist until late March/or April. As things stand, 65-75 year olds (incl. me) are excluded from the Pfizer/Moderna roll-out (over-75s only) and AZ scheme (under 65’s). This is bizarre – especially now that W.H.O says AZ is OK for over 65’s. 9/10
Final word (as if).
To hit France’s target (same as the UK's) of vaccinating all willing adults by summer’s end, something like 58,000,000 1st/ 2nd shots will be needed (assuming 56% take-up).
That’s 55.2m more jabs in 222 days to 22 Sept – or 248,648 a day
It’s possible 10/10

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More from @john_lichfield

11 Feb
French Covid thread. Depending on your viewpoint, the figures for the last week are “encouraging” (the government) or “misleadingly stable” (epidemiologists). Average daily cases and deaths fell for the first time in many weeks. But the “UK variant” continues to spread fast. 1/12
Ministers say the stats justify Prsdt Macron’s gamble 2 weeks ago in refusing a 3rd Fr. lockdown. Epidemiologists say the faster-moving UK and other variants will soon dominate – and cases/deaths will explode. The mutations are now 39% of cases in Paris area/ 21% nationwide. 2/12
The government admits that lockdown may still be necessary but they hope to avoid one. If it does happen - in March say - they believe Macron will given credit for preserving limited freedoms for as long as possible rather than blamed for risking lives. Maybe. Maybe not. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
5 Feb
New French vaccine thread…
The French programme is speeding up. Hooray. Without admitting they were ever slow, the French government says it can go faster. PM Jean Castex announced last night circa 1.5m extra injections this month – bringing the total to 4m. 1/16
The stats remain opaque but the extra jabs seem to involve a/ 500,000 new first shots for the over-75’s using Pfizer/Moderna doses and b/ 1,000,000 Astra-Zeneca shots which will be offered to health professional of all ages from tomorrow. 2/16
I have received a detailed reply from the health ministry to my questions on the pace of the French programme (which used just over half of the doses it had received at the end of Jan.). Libération newspaper carried a similar response. See below. 3/16
liberation.fr/checknews/la-f…
Read 16 tweets
4 Feb
France is to accelerate its vaccination programme with an extra 1.5m first jabs this months thanks to the arrival of the easier-to-use AstraZeneca vaccine, the PM Jean Castex just announced.
The AZ vaccine will allow France to complete 4m first jabs by end of Feb, instead of the existing target of 2.5m he told a press conference. The AZ vaccine is only approved for under-65's in Fr. It will therefore be offered to care/health workers and under-65s with health issues.
France will also open up 500,000 new appointments for over-75's this month and 1,200,00 extra slots next month (with more slots possible later) using Pfizer/ Moderna vaccines. This is a response to criticism in certain quarters (ie not just me) that Fr vax prog is too ponderous.
Read 10 tweets
4 Feb
Weekly French Covid thread. No 3rd lockdown after all. Not yet anyway. President Macron took a big gamble last Friday and decided that French opinion wasn’t ready for Confinement 3 and epidemic stats didn’t justify one.
So far, most stats are still on Macron’s side.
BUT… 1/8
The head of the Paris hospital medical committee, Prof Rémi Salomon, warned yesterday that the faster-moving UK variant of Covid-19 was now 15-20% of all cases in the Paris area - up from 6% a month ago. He said the pandemic seemed certain to accelerate in the days ahead. 2/8
As things stand, the main virus numbers that I follow in this thread are fairly stable. The average number of cases each day has scarcely increased in 7 days - from 20,248 to 20,614. Daily deaths are up from 400.5 to 448.4. Intensive care occupation is up from 3,111 to 3,277
3/8
Read 8 tweets
2 Feb
Hmm. Pres Macron told TF1 tonight that France would have “offered a vaccine" to all adults who wanted one before the end of summer. He denied French vax prog was falling behind. But France injected only 45,000 people yesterday. What’s going on? 1/5
lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/mac…
First Macron’s promise was carefully worded. He didn’t say that France would vaccinate all willing bodies (two jabs needed) before the end of the summer. He said France would offer (“proposer”) them a vaccine (which might mean only a first jab). 2/5
In fact both are possible if France starts jabbing faster. Many adult will refuse. According to a recent poll only 56% are willing (ie 29,000,000 French adults). Two jabs for all would require 58,000,000 injections- or 276,000 a day by end Aug. One jab - 138,000 a day. 3/5
Read 6 tweets
30 Jan
Something has been bugging me for days about the French Covid vaccination programme. The published figures don’t add up. They don’t explain why France has local shortages of vaccines and has postponed all “first jabs” in three big regions next week. 1/14
Yes, yes I know that Pfizer has temporarily reduced output (cutting France’s deliveries by 200,000). I know (who couldn’t know?) that AstraZeneca has slashed its promised supplies to the EU. But the French figures still don’t add up. 2/14
I have asked the health ministry press office to explain. No response. I’m surprised the French media has not asked the same question. So I’ve decided to lay out the figures (as far as I can establish them) and see if anyone can enlighten me. 3/14
Read 14 tweets

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