Thread by @gnomeicide

Covid-19 deaths and infections are settling in to pretty regular trends right now, but explaining what that really means will take a moment or three. Here's the overall picture (1)

Have a look at that on a log graph - note two different scales here, but its important you get a closer look at whats happening (2)

A straight line on a log plot means a constant proportional rate. It turns a constant curve into a straight line. So a linear graph might be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, but a straight line on a log plot would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. (3)

When looking at the rate of growth or decline in a disease thats what you expect to see. If 1 person passes a disease on to (n) people, then (n) people pass it on to (n) x (n), etc. Whether R (infection rate) is above 1 or not, whether its going up or down, you get a curve (4)

And if we see straight lines, it means you've got that constant proportional change. With me so far? Good. (5)

So both are going down at constant (ish) proportional rates. Here's what deaths are doing - the rate has flattened out at a little over 4% (6)

And of course that happened after recorded infections flattened out at a similar rate (7)

And yes, that means that each days deaths are roughly 96% of the previous days (correcting for daily variation in death reporting (8)

Yes, that daily variation is still absurd (9)

But each days trend is now downwards, conclusively and rapidly so - but if it remains at this same percentage rate it'll slow down very quickly. (10)

Brass tacks - this trajectory is such that each day we're seeing just over 75% of the fatalities of the same day the week before. That sounds epic, but remember, its a curve and not a straight line. We've just got down to 671 deaths a day, on average (11)

That means at this rate we average under 1 death per day 25 weeks from now, give or take half a year. That isn't good enough (12)

Dishearteningly there is no sign of vaccinations slowing deaths down yet. I would hope we see that soon, although our chronic infection rate has created new variants that complicate this in multiple ways (13)

I want lockdowns to end. You want them to end. We all do. The way out isn't to pretend that it isn't a catastrophe if we all go back to normal, because as yet it will be (14)

We need a solid numerical basis for believing that test, track and trace in the UK will work to suppress infection, lowering it week on week and reducing both infections and deaths otherwise loosening lockdown is mass murder. Its that simple (15)

So please, remember, none of this was necessary. We didn't have to have the worlds worst response to Covid. We didn't have to have the biggest per-capita death rate and the worst economic damage in the world. This came about due to terrible political choices (16)

An you should not, indeed you must not relent until those political leaders (Johsnon and his sycophantic mob of yes-men) are held to account. Britains response to Covid has been a crime against humanity (17)

And the result, the damage, with the strains we have produced here, will kill many more here and around the world. Hold them to account. Never forget. Do not forgive (fin)