Thread by @gnomeicide

The single worst day of the Covid-19 pandemic in Britain. Record dead (1325) and record infections (68053). Here's the overall picture (1)

Deaths are rising exponentially. Today was 600 deaths above even the wost trends would have suggested, and it means we're over five and a half thousand deaths on a rolling 7 day basis. (2)

Which makes todays 7 day average death total of 809 the 17th highest average total. All of the others were clustered adound the first wave peak (3)

On average the daily death total is rising at just shy of 6%. A slow exponential. There is no such thing as an exponential increase in deaths that ends well. (4)

Maybe later tonight or tomorrow I'll compare the increase in death rate in the new exponential with the one we saw in wave 1. This one has hit us from a higher starting point and threatens to overwhelm us (5)

R was drifting up above 1.3 in mid-December when (on average) todays poor folk who sucummbed caught it. This spike pretty much times to the crowded rail stations when Christmas restrictions started to change (6)

Most fatalities are counted Tuesday to Saturday. Oddly Friday has never been the worst day in the second wave, and rarely in the 1st. This is a significant acceleration in the death rate. 3 of those 4 days so far this week have seen massive rises in deaths (7)

Amazingly positive test results continue to increase exponentially. (8)

Seriously, look at that data on a non-exponential scale. Its horrific. We wouldn't expect Lockdown 3 to show up in that yet, but its telling us measures to slow this down over New Year achieved nothing (9)

Doubling time data kind of doesn't always make sense graphed, but here goes. Average deaths doubling time over the last 7 days is 26. Todays data compared with last Friday is a 5 day doubling time. (10)

And the proportion of positives we were catching and recording is slowing, when it had been getting better. (11)

So what can we conclude? Well, the mixed messages in December have created mass fatalities at a biblical level. The NHS is now overrun in many parts of the country and healthcare systems straining to continue (12)

Deaths are rocketing. The worst projections have come true, and then some. Those who caught it at Christmas, their deaths haven't even got in to this yet. Goodness knows what happens then. Probably nothing good (13)

And even if lockdown 3 is as effective as lockdown 1 (from how busy the roads are on my daily exercise ride, it won't be) we'll be looking at days of deaths above a thousand. Possibly steadying a bit next week before another bump (14)

And Johnsons frankly pathetic delay at New Year means from this catastrophic infection level, we sent kids across the county into school to mix and spread infection further. For one day of school. One day. (15)

We're now the most infected country per capita in the world, we're somewhere around third for deaths. I've ran out of words to describe how astonishingly badly we've done. And its going to get worse. I'm so sorry. (fin)