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Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
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9 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Projected dead from Covid-19 today would be 561-658 based on average 14 and 7 day rises and last Saturday. BUT thats not really indicative of anything. Saturday was a low reporting day, being the day after NY...
Some of the higher numbers on other days this week were delayed reporting due to that. The average is still -terrifying- and does represent a big increase in deaths...
...but I will be frankly astonished if we don't go well above projections today. Tomorrow and Monday are likely to be relatively low (but still big rises on last Sunday and Monday), whereas later in the week the numbers are horrific. Might be approaching or past 2000...
...and the end of next week is when we start to see fatalities from infections at Christmas. Your guess is as good as mine as to how bad that'll be.

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More from @gnomeicide

Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
9 Jan
Another 1035 deaths due to Covid today in the UK, taking us up above 80,000. We're used to it, but we shouldn't be. Here's the overall picture. See how fast the red line (average 7 days deaths) is rocketing up (1) Image
Have another, closer look at that trend. Its terrifying, right? (2) Image
Thats 6,254 in the last seven days. 893 per day. And it continues to accelerate. For context Japan has lost 3,746 people IN TOTAL. (3) Image
Read 17 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
8 Jan
The single worst day of the Covid-19 pandemic in Britain. Record dead (1325) and record infections (68053). Here's the overall picture (1)
Deaths are rising exponentially. Today was 600 deaths above even the wost trends would have suggested, and it means we're over five and a half thousand deaths on a rolling 7 day basis. (2)
Which makes todays 7 day average death total of 809 the 17th highest average total. All of the others were clustered adound the first wave peak (3)
Read 16 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
7 Jan
Unless Johnson plans to resign I've little interest in hearing his press conference. His monstrous mishandling of our Covid-19 crisis (another 1162 dead today) is beyond inept and into murderous. Here's the overall picture (1) Image
Thats the highest daily total of all second wave and the second highest daily total overall. Only topped once, 1224 on the 22nd of April. The never-ending second wave of infection has killed about as many as the first now. (2) Image
Deaths are increasing exponentially and unless this slows very soon and very quickly we are looking at biblical totals (3) Image
Read 13 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
21 Dec 20
So here's some good news. You stayed home, you didn't catch (or spread, if you caught it) Covid. Well done, you stopped 4 people getting it 5 days later (1)
That means 5 days after that 16 people didn't have it... And you get where this is going. It also means 33 days later, on average, you saved someone's life (2)
Because the number who die of this disease, the proportion, is more or less that. 3 generations worth of spread is enough such that about 1 person is dead. And the average time it would have taken to kill that person is 33 days (3)
Read 4 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
20 Dec 20
326 Covid-19 fatalities in the UK today. Not a record for a Sunday, but high, and after a low number last Sunday, and a slow rise over the last few days, things are looking grim. Here's the overall picture (1)
Have a closer look at the resent trend. Thats a worrying upturn. (2)
3234 dead over the last 7 days, thats the highest 7 day total since November 28th. That means that the peak we'd hoped not to pass in the second wave, the high point so far, might be passed again soon (3)
Read 16 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
19 Dec 20
Another 489 needless and preventable fatalities due to Covid-19 announced in the UK yesterday. We may be reaching a new crisis point (1) Image
The recent trend is, sort of, kind of static. This reflects what lockdown 2 looked like - it stopped deaths rising. It hasn't caused a reduction in the death rate (2) Image
We'll break through 70,000 deaths soon, even using the governments entirely arbitrary and statistically shitty 28 day cutoff trick. (3) Image
Read 10 tweets

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