Just amplify the point @McFaul was making earlier, there is no doubt that Trump is an authoritarian and the people around him are wannabe authoritarians, but the history of mass movements tells you that they are not made by people like Trump. /1
Think of it this way: people like Trump are the initial bout of a sickness that leaves a society weak and open to opportunistic infection from authoritarians who are far more competent and capable of building an actual mass movement. /2
This is a serious danger, especially since Trump proved you can break down the guardrails of a constitutional republic and get away with it. But people who think that Trump is leading a mass movement are ignoring a lot of important historical realities about such movements. /3
The other thing a mass movement requires is a large cadre of serious people. Sad as it is to say, the fundamental unseriousness of America also mitigates against the creation of a dangerous mass movement. /4
That doesn’t mean that you can’t get a wave of Mickey Mouse fascists in mobs here and there. Just as we’ve gotten short-pants Stalinism breaking out here and there in the middle of cities. /5
Summary: Worry less about Trump and what’s going on right now. Worry more about what’s coming down the road - and yes, from both the right and the left - now that our republic is in a weakened condition. /6x
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Okay, so everyone is liking that I like Mary Chapin Carpenter, but honesty means that I have to tell the story of how I first saw her and why I didn't like her at all and it was a terrible night out. /1
I was a dating a very nice woman with taste in just about everything better than mine, and she said: MCC at the Birchmere just outside of DC, and you'll love it. And I was like...uh, country. Folk. No. This was mid-80s and I was all New Wave and Britpop. But I went. /2
Anyway, MCC was in a very folky phase then, and if I recall, comes in with an acoustic guitar and a long print dress and starts singing quiet, pretty songs, and by the end of that first pitcher of beer, even though I'm sitting near the stage, I am literally nodding off. /3
@Shoq@DanShenise No, it's not. Part of how we got here was in a culture - and on this, the conservatives are correct - that refused to differentiate between Romney and David Duke. You have no idea the effect of calling people Nazis for forty years. Your guys helped inure people to the charge. /1
@Shoq@DanShenise This is not the same as "you made them be Nazis." It's worse than that: the undifferentiated attacks on centrist GOPers convinced a lot of voters that there was no wolf, when there were plenty of wolves. I have been banging this drum for thirty years. /2
@Shoq@DanShenise I think the 1994 takeover was a shock to the GOP and most of the things you'd want to say about us after 1994 are true and legit. But "it was all you, it was always this way, and it's inherent in conservatism" is not only nuts, but helped create 2016. /3
One of the things that's also amazing, and this response gets nearer to it, is that "economic grievance" arguments fail to make any class or *race* distinctions. /1
The people chanting in front of state capitols are not the poor and dispossessed. If economic grievance and inequality were the issue, black people would have overrun the Congress, not bored white realtors addicted to Instagramming their adventures. /2
If income inequality drove insane political behavior, black people - and black women, in particular, would not have saved the country and made Joe Biden the Democratic nominee. "All this political instability is about how I can't buy a house" is a very white argument. /3
In the case of an authoritarian state like Russia, the way protest brings change is: the elites around Putin worry that public anger will sway the institutions of the state - the cops, the military - to refuse further repression. They start cutting deals internally. /1
People like @Kasparov63 and @IlvesToomas and others can speak about this with more authority, but regimes collapse when other institutions in the state decide the risk and anger from their fellow citizens is no longer worth what they gain from participating in repression. /2
This is what Putin fears most of all: Another Ukraine or Georgia type "color revolution," where popular anger makes basic administration of the state impossible and key players (like the power ministers) start defecting from the ruling coalition. /3
Just to amplify David's excellent analogy, let me explain a few other things about Russia.
- There will be no Joe Biden elected six months after the protests.
- The entire Russian police state will remain in place even if Putin drops dead tomorrow.
- The size of the Russian police apparatus is immense and centralized and is not just a bunch of local police departments
- In Russia, the media is not on the side of the protesters and will do everything it can to minimize them and stay out of Putin's way
/2
- Many of you have tweeted George Floyd's name, as well as Breonna Taylor and others. The fact that you know their names is a huge difference. People will be killed and tortured in Russia and you will never know who they are.
Everyone's reaching out and thanking each other for getting through this. I am not kidding that I will not fully relax until the nuclear codes are away from him. But thank you all for the support and enduring my TDS, which I also call "sanity." /1
People have thanked me for using a voice and a platform, but you folks gave that to me by reading me and putting up with me. (A half million of you!) Sometimes I wrote to buck up my own spirits, sometimes to buck up yours, and sometimes just to vent the anger we all felt. /2
You're not rid of me, of course. I and many others will stay on Trump's enablers pretty much forever. And I promise I will keep writing the really important stuff like shoes on airplanes and why Boston is better than the suckage of a certain overrated UK blues ripoff band. /3