This figure illustrates a really key point about #ElectricVehicles - cost parity is not the end of the road. They are on track to be *cheaper* to buy than gasoline vehicles (not to mention cheaper to drive and maintain).

Source: @TheICCT theicct.org/publications/u….
This is an example of how decarbonization is worth doing with or without climate change. We could be spending less on cars in a decarbonized future than if we don't decarbonize. More on that below.
Not everyone may agree with ICCT's projections. I am not sure I fully agree either. But the general point remains: EVs vs gasoline vehicles is the story of a continuously improving technology vs. one that (while improving) is not poised to be much cheaper than it is now.
Not surprisingly, @ramez made this point back as long ago as 2016. Still, I see a ton of attention paid to the point of cost parity & a lot less on what happens after. But it's the latter that matters in the long term & for multi-decadal climate policy. rameznaam.com/2016/04/12/how…

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More from @EmilDimanchev

12 Feb
As clean industry grows, good information about it becomes more valuable & put behind paywalls. As a CO2 market analyst working behind a paywall for 5 years & having gone through a similar acquisition, my sympathies. It's nice to see the effort by @Ed_Crooks here. My 2 cents:
A lot of the paywalled knowledge can be shared. Our clients at Point Carbon (bought by Thomson Reuters) generally didn't mind us sharing headline forecasts. What they paid for was the analysis & arguments behind the values, which is what made the information useful to them. #OCTT
At the same time, policy makers and stakeholders found bottom-line numbers like our CO2 price forecasts valuable because it helped them understand where the market was going under different policy scenarios and ultimately how to design and reform CO2 pricing.
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
Wow - many popular climate models have been assuming electric vehicles will remain more expensive than internal combustion engine cars all the way to 2100. As a modeler, I sympathize cost assumptions are hard but there’s a lot of room for improvement here. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
At current battery cost trends, EVs will reach cost parity with ICE in years, not decades or centuries as in these models (see thread below). E.g. BNEF projects cost parity in 2023. These are order of magnitude differences between bottom-up forecasting and climate modeling!
To those tracking clean energy cost projections, this is probably not surprising, @AukeHoekstra, @MLiebreich. To me it’s raising the following question - is modeling research really not learning to model new technologies better after the ignoble experiences with solar and wind?
Read 6 tweets
28 Sep 20
A few thoughts on Tesla's battery day: 🔋🔋🔋

What does it mean for EV cost parity, and how about those V2G comments? Image
Tesla said it will produce a $25,000 EV in 3 years. This will be achieved with cheaper battery cells, which were projected to cost 56% less in three years. wsj.com/articles/tesla…

For reference, average battery pack costs have declined 20%/year on average since 2010, per BNEF. Image
Back in 2018 Tesla had the same goal to bring a $25k EV to market in 3 years. This is not to put down their good efforts or anything. It's just meant to show that this is a hard problem and to inform our expectations. wired.com/story/elon-mus…
Read 14 tweets
13 Feb 20
It’s here! Our new working paper w/ @WildeEcon explores the role of Canadian hydro in deep decarbonization, & shows we can get to zero CO2 faster & at lower cost by *both* deploying renewables in the US & making the most of existing hydro. THREAD.

ceepr.mit.edu/publications/w…
@WildeEcon A growing number of Northeastern US states (New England states and New York) is making commitments for zero-carbon electricity by 2040 or 2050. greentechmedia.com/articles/read/… via @JMPyper

In New England we are taking a step back by retiring nuclear.
@WildeEcon In 2016 Massachusetts solicited bids for 9.45 TWh of clean energy. Projects to bring Quebec hydro via new transmission won. One died (Northern Pass). The other (NECEC) is being contested by communities along the line. See @JesseJenkins on that here:
Read 27 tweets
16 Jan 20
@HannahEDaly In addition to the other responses "Renewables" by @MichaelAklin and @jurpelai; Planetary Economics by @MichaelGrubb9 on carbon pricing in particular, e.g. EU failed 90s CO2 tax, but also energy taxation in general (e.g. Clinton BTU tax). David Victor, esp. for the intl. angle.
@HannahEDaly @MichaelAklin @jurpelai @MichaelGrubb9 Of course, Australia's carbon tax provides ample fodder. Not seeing a paper in my records just now but a good start might be:

-nytimes.com/2014/07/25/opi…
-wsj.com/articles/austr…
@HannahEDaly @MichaelAklin @jurpelai @MichaelGrubb9 @JesseJenkins has at least two papers on political failures and constraints focusing on carbon pricing: scholar.google.com/citations?hl=e…
Read 6 tweets
7 Sep 18
New MIT paper corroborates narrative that 100% renewable pathway would probably be more expensive than incorporating other low-carbon sources. For strident climate hawks this might raise the question: why do we care so much about costs? 1. news.mit.edu/2018/adding-po…
After all, no policy is ever 100% cost-effective. Society has always tolerated some inefficiency, to a large extent because democratic politics requires messy compromises. 2.
But aiming to achieve cost-efficiency asymptotically, striving towards but while knowing we will never reach it, is still a worthwhile thing to do and there are good reasons that price-insensitive climate hawks should care about cost-efficiency. 3.
Read 10 tweets

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