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Daniel Cohan Profile picture
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15 Feb, 11 tweets, 6 min read
ERCOT expected to get low capacity factors from wind and solar during winter peak demand. What it didn't expect is >20 GW of outages from thermal (mostly natural gas) power plants.
ercot.com/gridinfo/resou…
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
Note that ERCOT's worst case scenario, based on 2011 freeze, included 9,509 MW of outages, not the >20,000 MW that's down today. Much deeper freeze this time, and natural gas is scarce given heating needs.
ercot.com/content/wcm/li…
Although ERCOT only expected 269 MW of solar during winter peak demand, we may actually get over 3,000 MW at times today. That's more solar than existed in ERCOT two years ago.
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
A thread with more info about the ERCOT situation:
The freeze is affecting not just natural gas demand but also production
34 GW of supply offline in ERCOT today
ERCOT forecast 72 GW of peak demand today, but is supplying just 45 GW with over 30 GW generation forced off the system. ercot.com/news/releases/…
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
An informative update thread here. Bottom line: 29 GW of thermal capacity (likely mostly natural gas) is still offline, and wind and solar are producing near or above expectations for a winter peak event.
Texas nuclear plants (Comanche Peak and South Texas) are operating at 100%. Thus, the 30+ GW outages ERCOT reported today are mostly fossil fuel plants.
nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc…
A correction regarding nuclear during the Texas blackouts
Confirmation from NRC that one of the four nuclear units in Texas did go down yesterday.
nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc…

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Daniel Cohan Profile picture
17 Feb
So many of the misleading narratives about the #TexasBlackout are missing a fundamental understanding of our electric power supply, and its mutual vulnerabilities with our gas systems. We're facing an _energy systems_ crisis, not just an electricity crisis.
To understand why, we can begin by seeing how ERCOT generates power on average. Nearly half is from gas. Wind topped coal last year for the first time. We have just 4 nuclear units, little hydro, and solar soaring from a small base. Image
That supply provides power for most but not all of the state. And the grid is contained within Texas, with very little transmission linking to the rest of the country or Mexico. So what happens in Texas, stays in Texas. Image
Read 28 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
16 Feb
Wind has been producing ~1.5 GW less than ERCOT expected for a winter peak event, solar ~1 GW more than expected, & nuclear running 100%. Meanwhile, >30 GW of fossil plants, mostly natural gas, went down. So of course the narrative is -- frozen wind turbines! 🤦‍♂️
#RollingBlackouts
See here for more details
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
Correction to my earlier tweet: It appears there was a temporary outage at one of the four nuclear units in Texas, around 6 am Monday, according to this post by @Atomicrod. Others remained at 100% output.
atomicinsights.com/south-texas-pr…
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
1 Feb 20
Following up on last year's thread, time to look at Annual Energy Outlook 2020, released by EIA Wednesday: eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/
A huge step forward this year is considering alternate cases for renewables costs. As I wrote last year, the lack of such scenarios had been a persistent blindspot in EIA outlooks. Thank you EIA!!
thehill.com/opinion/energy…
In the reference case, CO2 emissions stay flat through 2050, with transportation the largest source and more industrial gas use offsetting less power plant coal. Nowhere near Obama's Paris pledge of 80% reduction by 2050, or Dems' targets of net-zero by then.
Read 18 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
29 Dec 19
After a not too bad track record the past two years, might as well make some predictions for 2020 on climate, energy, and related matters.
Predictions for 2020 on climate, energy & related matters.
1. A moderate Democrat is elected President, Ds hold House, but Rs keep Senate
2. Climate gets unprecedented attention in debates & as rallying cry for Dems. Growing number of Republicans, especially swing-state senators & challengers to freshman Dems, run as pro-climate with market-based or tech/innovation focused approaches.
Read 11 tweets

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