After a not too bad track record the past two years, might as well make some predictions for 2020 on climate, energy, and related matters.
Predictions for 2020 on climate, energy & related matters.
1. A moderate Democrat is elected President, Ds hold House, but Rs keep Senate
1. A moderate Democrat is elected President, Ds hold House, but Rs keep Senate
2. Climate gets unprecedented attention in debates & as rallying cry for Dems. Growing number of Republicans, especially swing-state senators & challengers to freshman Dems, run as pro-climate with market-based or tech/innovation focused approaches.
3. At the COP 26 climate talks in Glasgow, the newly elected D POTUS pledges the US will re-enter the Paris Agreement and aim for net-zero by 2050. But with R's holding the Senate, the path remains murky. At least a dozen countries, including China, up the ambition of their NDC.
4. Global average temperatures narrowly top 2016 records, as new limits on sulfur in marine fuels reduce sulfate cooling, greenhouse gas levels set record highs, but we're not in a strong El Nino as then.
5. Rooftop solar installations in US set new records, spurred on by CA mandate for new homes, record-low prices, tariff phase-down, & anticipated step-down of tax credits. Congress extends tax credits in year-end budget deal. Some blue locales consider emulating CA's rules.
6. Utility solar & wind also set new records, spurred by phase-downs in tax credits (that are ultimately extended) and growth in Texas & Florida. Major utilities get more specific about their plans to add RE + storage, and major corps about their plans to buy it.
7. Coal power production continues to decline. At least 10 new closures of coal power plants are announced, including at least one in Texas.
8. Oil ends 2020 in the low $60s/barrel (Brent). Natural gas stays below $3/mmBtu (Henry Hub) most of the year, but tops it a few times.
9. Stocks see little gains, as the economy remains out of recession and interest rates remain low but the market rally and lofty PE ratios of 2019 had already priced that in.
10. Congress passes no major climate legislation, but passes bipartisan deals to increase ARPA-E and other clean energy R&D, restore efficiency standards weakened by Trump, and extend tax credits.
