Wind has been producing ~1.5 GW less than ERCOT expected for a winter peak event, solar ~1 GW more than expected, & nuclear running 100%. Meanwhile, >30 GW of fossil plants, mostly natural gas, went down. So of course the narrative is -- frozen wind turbines! 🤦‍♂️
#RollingBlackouts
Correction to my earlier tweet: It appears there was a temporary outage at one of the four nuclear units in Texas, around 6 am Monday, according to this post by @Atomicrod. Others remained at 100% output.
atomicinsights.com/south-texas-pr…
Correction to my post from yesterday

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Daniel Cohan

Daniel Cohan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @cohan_ds

17 Feb
So many of the misleading narratives about the #TexasBlackout are missing a fundamental understanding of our electric power supply, and its mutual vulnerabilities with our gas systems. We're facing an _energy systems_ crisis, not just an electricity crisis.
To understand why, we can begin by seeing how ERCOT generates power on average. Nearly half is from gas. Wind topped coal last year for the first time. We have just 4 nuclear units, little hydro, and solar soaring from a small base. Image
That supply provides power for most but not all of the state. And the grid is contained within Texas, with very little transmission linking to the rest of the country or Mexico. So what happens in Texas, stays in Texas. Image
Read 31 tweets
15 Feb
ERCOT expected to get low capacity factors from wind and solar during winter peak demand. What it didn't expect is >20 GW of outages from thermal (mostly natural gas) power plants.
ercot.com/gridinfo/resou…
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
Note that ERCOT's worst case scenario, based on 2011 freeze, included 9,509 MW of outages, not the >20,000 MW that's down today. Much deeper freeze this time, and natural gas is scarce given heating needs.
ercot.com/content/wcm/li…
Although ERCOT only expected 269 MW of solar during winter peak demand, we may actually get over 3,000 MW at times today. That's more solar than existed in ERCOT two years ago.
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
Read 11 tweets
1 Feb 20
Following up on last year's thread, time to look at Annual Energy Outlook 2020, released by EIA Wednesday: eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/
A huge step forward this year is considering alternate cases for renewables costs. As I wrote last year, the lack of such scenarios had been a persistent blindspot in EIA outlooks. Thank you EIA!!
thehill.com/opinion/energy…
In the reference case, CO2 emissions stay flat through 2050, with transportation the largest source and more industrial gas use offsetting less power plant coal. Nowhere near Obama's Paris pledge of 80% reduction by 2050, or Dems' targets of net-zero by then.
Read 18 tweets
29 Dec 19
After a not too bad track record the past two years, might as well make some predictions for 2020 on climate, energy, and related matters.
Predictions for 2020 on climate, energy & related matters.
1. A moderate Democrat is elected President, Ds hold House, but Rs keep Senate
2. Climate gets unprecedented attention in debates & as rallying cry for Dems. Growing number of Republicans, especially swing-state senators & challengers to freshman Dems, run as pro-climate with market-based or tech/innovation focused approaches.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!