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PLC

15 Feb, 8 tweets, 3 min read

Positive signs are emerging: life has largely returned to normal for the 18% of humanity that live in India:

business-standard.com/article/curren…

Economic indicators confirm the trend. Life is returning to normal in India. Not a new normal, just normal normal.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/i…

Even domestic air travel has nearly captured all of the lost volume from the panic of 2020: newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/…

It wasn't vaccines that got India back to normal, either (they've barely started):

It wasn't lockdowns (ended in May) that worked, or masks, either.

Rather, it simply appears as though Covid spread through India, largely unabated, peaking in early September before fading away. Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are all down ~90%.

The only question remaining is if the decline in India is driven primarily by seasonal affects or by population immunity.

Serological surveys indicate that a large portion of the population has been infected, with most being unaware:

scroll.in/article/986097…

Covid spread, unopposed, in India during 2020 and killed 0.01% of the population. Meanwhile, the initial local lockdown and global hysteria have pushed 85 million people into poverty. It is very unlikely that the WHO will convince India to make this mistake twice.

So, it appears that India has regained their sanity and is returning rapidly to the old normal, not the new normal, and they are not awaiting the permission of Bill Gates, the WHO, or the WEF.

hindustantimes.com/india-news/we-…

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More from @Humble_Analysis

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

7 Feb

In 4 weeks, cases worldwide have fallen by 40%; this is worldwide phenomenon - with one notable exception. One nation remains with stubbornly high cases counts - in fact, the very highest cases per capital in the world....

Israel currently has higher cases per capita than any other nation with more than 7 million people and their case count appears to have plateaued while every other nation sees cases rapidly declining or already very low:

Israel's high case count comes despite a hard lockdown and the world's best, by far, rate of vaccination:

Read 6 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

4 Feb

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1356122888047259648

I like how NPR "explains" that cases have fallen in India because of masks, while also stating that mask mandates were in place before cases rose and that serioprevelance indicates almost 60% of urban populations have already had Covid.

npr.org/sections/goats…

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1356122888047259648

Maybe what they are saying is that masks accelerated transmission, thereby driving India to effective seasonal immunity faster?

I mean look at all those masks!
msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

Read 5 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

28 Jan

While Israel leads the world in vaccinations, the UAE is only about 10 days behind, with about 30 doses per 100 people administered, thus far:

Oddly, cases in the UAE began to accelerate dramatically right about the same time they began to vaccinate:

My first guess is that they began to test much more often, but that doesn't appear to be true:

Read 5 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

23 Dec 20

California was the first state to issue a stay at home order, has mandated masks for months, and has been one of the 10 most restrictive states over the past three months; Florida has no state mask mandate, no lockdown and is one of the least restrictive states in the country.

Florida and California are two of the three largest states by population and both have sunny, warm weather and reside on a similar latitude. One has had open theme parks for months; the other has never allowed Disney to open. Let's compare how they are doing...

Cases in California are now 4X higher than in Florida. Both saw a spike in the Summer, but California's late Fall growth in cases is dramatically worse than Florida's:

Read 11 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

21 Dec 20

Four days ago, Oxford University published a report on US state government responses to Covid-19, showing a wide divergence in relative stringency with that divergence growing over time as 1/2 the US states open up and 1/2 continue to lock-down:

This study, if anything, understates the differences between states as I have personally visited 20 states since this Summer and the day-to-day experiences in Alabama or Idaho vs. Washington or Nevada are dramatically and obviously different.

bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/…

The obvious question is: have the stringent states bought anything with their authoritarian limits on personal freedom?

Looking at cumulative Covid deaths, there is no clear correlation between stringency and mortality:

Read 9 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

21 Dec 20

Euromomo.eu shows excess mortality in the Spring more than 2X that seen in the fall, despite wider spread:

Similarly, the CDC estimated excess mortality in the Spring was about 2X that seen in Summer or Fall, despite ever widening spread:

Why has Covid become so dramatically less lethal over time? One primary reason is that doctors are no longer actively mistreating patients:
wsj.com/articles/hospi…

Read 6 tweets

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