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21 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Euromomo.eu shows excess mortality in the Spring more than 2X that seen in the fall, despite wider spread:
Similarly, the CDC estimated excess mortality in the Spring was about 2X that seen in Summer or Fall, despite ever widening spread:
Why has Covid become so dramatically less lethal over time? One primary reason is that doctors are no longer actively mistreating patients:
wsj.com/articles/hospi…
Key quotes: "doctors now follow the pre-pandemic protocols, which have reduced the number of deaths" and "we were intubating sick patients very early. Not for the patients’ benefit.."
Back in May, I was on a conference call where a doctor stated that patients were being intubated primarily to protect medical workers and were dying from pneumonia due to the fear of tube exchanges.
In short, the panic and hysteria of Spring lead to more deaths than would have occurred otherwise. While politicians and the press continue to panic, luckily it appears that doctors have realized that Covid is not the plague.

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More from @Humble_Analysis

PLC Profile picture
21 Dec
Four days ago, Oxford University published a report on US state government responses to Covid-19, showing a wide divergence in relative stringency with that divergence growing over time as 1/2 the US states open up and 1/2 continue to lock-down: Image
This study, if anything, understates the differences between states as I have personally visited 20 states since this Summer and the day-to-day experiences in Alabama or Idaho vs. Washington or Nevada are dramatically and obviously different.

bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/…
The obvious question is: have the stringent states bought anything with their authoritarian limits on personal freedom?

Looking at cumulative Covid deaths, there is no clear correlation between stringency and mortality: Image
Read 9 tweets
PLC Profile picture
16 Dec
It has now been 4 weeks since "cases" peaked in the northern Great Plains states; they have now fallen nearly 50% since mid-November despite mild restrictions and limited mask mandates:
Cases in the Rocky Mountain states appear to have peaked one week later (before Thanksgiving):
The southern Plains states seem to have hit a plateau before Thanksgiving and may have begun their inevitable descent:
Read 13 tweets
PLC Profile picture
6 Dec
Officially, the CDC shows 335K excess deaths in 2020. But, something is very wrong with their baseline expected deaths. For some reason, they "expected" mortality to decline this year - after steadily increasing annually for the past decade:
If the CDC had simply extended their average expected deaths trend into 2020, excess deaths would be reduced by 114K. In other words, about 1/3 of CDC reported excess mortality is due entirely to an artificially low baseline:
To paint this in the best possible light, I believe the CDC may have reduced expected 2020 deaths because of the extraordinarily mild Winter deaths observed in 2019. However, past trends indicate that low mortality years tend to be followed by high mortality years.
Read 5 tweets
PLC Profile picture
12 Oct
In the USA, for those under age 45, lockdown deaths exceed Covid deaths by nearly 2:1, through the end of August.
For those aged 45-74, lockdown deaths account for 23% of net Excess mortality; mortality displacement explains (at minimum) a further 24%.
For those older than 75, mortality displacement drove 26% of excess mortality and lockdowns drove a further 18%.
Read 4 tweets
PLC Profile picture
12 Oct
Why are so many elderly dying of Covid? Mostly because those are the people who die, of any cause. Past age 45, Covid share of total deaths is fairly constant. Under 45, Covid mortality is vanishingly rare:
Across all age groups, Covid is rapidly disappearing as significant cause of mortality in the USA. This could be both because Covid deaths are declining and because lockdown-induced mortality remains high.
For those under 15, the risk of dying with Covid are literally 1 in a million while almost 1% of the 85+ group has died with Covid. To put that in perspective, 11% of those over 85 have already died this year, from any cause.
Read 4 tweets
PLC Profile picture
3 Oct
The countries of Southeast Asia have reported essentially zero Covid-related deaths with many theories posited regarding the source of this surprising "immunity", but newly shared mortality data from S. Korea may have solved this mystery.
The Human Mortality database, a collaboration of UC Berkeley and the Max Planck Institute in Germany have recently added South Korea weekly mortality data back to 2010 which supports the "dry tinder" or mortality displacement hypothesis: Image
After a long period of remarkable consistency, South Korea has had three straight bad "flu seasons", with 2018 being especially bad. Unlike Europe and the Americas, 2018 was not followed by mild years but by two more bad years: Image
Read 7 tweets

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