There’s only ever been 3 real Labour govt eras & each time there was a common theme to how they started:

Attlee in the positive post war era
Wilson in the positive mid 1960s era
Blair in the positive late 90s era

Understand this & you get why Labour have to play this carefully.
2/

In bad times swing voters (liberal-Conservatives & socially conservative Labour voters) retrench.

When everyone feels positive about things voters are prepared to be expansive. There’s enough room, money & resources to spend on everyone.
In bad times it’s “me & mine”.
3/

Labours policy of showing competency to better manage Covid & Brexit is thus sound historically.

And, to some counter intuitively, Labour might stand a better chance of getting in if the post Brexit/post vaccine is not not a complete disaster.

How can this be..?
4/

Problem for Labour if we are still fighting a culture war over Brexit in bad times is this can radicalise swing Conservative voters & put off leave voting Labour voters.

It’s not this about a “red wall strategy” but about mass appeal on things Labour can beat the Tories on.

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More from @nicktolhurst

16 Feb
+UPDATE+

UK govt has told the 25 leading heritage & culture bodies in UK public life to eliminate left wing “woke” thought & anti British actions which it believes is not in step with post Brexit sentiment.

Culture minister Oliver Dowden to personally coordinate the campaign.
2/

Part of this camüpaign will involve coordination with Dept for Education to see that "all views represented" & giving speakers the "automatic right" to claim compensation should a university or educational inst. decide to retract appearance due to political considerations.
3/

Govt plan is also based on outlawing any govt funding in heritage area that could “be used politically” or on “political themes.”

Upcoming coordination by culture & Dept of education planned for early next week aimed at “turning the tide” on culture.
Read 4 tweets
14 Feb
There is no proposal - its only James Skinner of CANZUK International.

CANZUK Int. use to be called:
"Commonwealth Freedom of Movement Organisation"

...but had to change its name as the only Commonwealth freedom of movement it campaigned for...was white

express.co.uk/news/uk/139755…
2/

CANZUK International is a political lobbying otganisation formed out of the Russian funded Legatum which has been consistently accussed of nearness to Russian intelligence services.

CANZUK itself barely exists outside of the white supramcist movement before its name change.
3/

Given this its unsurprising that Andrew Lilico is involved - altho its inclear what he does under the title of "Senior Economics Adviser" - as he's not an economist but a Telegraph opinion writer largely concerned with Conservativism and hasnt published anything on economics.
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
+UPDATE+

A number of EU states - incl. France - are coordinating discussions on a "unilateral exemption" for UK musicians, artists, scientists, academics from having to have a work visa for "cultural events" within the 90 day limit...

...regardless of any action by the UK govt.
2/

Idea behind such discussions is to encourage cultural exchange to continue smoothly as possible even after Brexit regardless of UK govt policy in this area.

France has already committed itself for full exemption in the 90 day period & other member states looking to follow.
3/

Should be noted that the work permit situation across the EU states is a "national competency" so its unlikely that this would cover all 27 states exactly the same way immediately - although some states, like France, have already agreed the exemption.
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
+UPDATE+

“Senior UK govt ministers” have contacted both the EU commission and EU member states about renegotiating the EU-UK trade deal agreed 6 weeks ago at Christmas.
2/

The term being used by UK govt in communications with the EU is “refinements”.

However UK is essentially requesting the EU (& it’s member states) to reopen the treaty for renegotiation.

EU Member states have been careful not to comment on this publicly.
3/

Understood that the UK govt has a “shopping list” of items that they are requesting “refinements” to in the EU-UK Treaty.

These include, but are not limited to, Northern Ireland & the fishing industry.
Read 5 tweets
8 Feb
If I see another remainer complaining about “special treatment for musicians” I think I’ll scream.

This is literally how you make the case for rejoin.

Group after group, sector after sector campaigning for “special treatment”...& that special treatment is...being in the EU.
2/

Every single group, demographic or sector campaigning for their freedom of movement are literally reinforcing the message that what they have now is worse than before...

...and remainers are complaining?
3/

..and if musicians do get “special freedom of movement treatment” then what happens next..?

...everyone will want it.

This is how we get back in - by creating ambassadors for alignment & rejoin.

So everyone come on & back the musicians and rejoin will have the best tunes..
Read 5 tweets
6 Feb
+UPDATE+

UK govt provided “false information” to British seafood & fishing industries based on misunderstanding of how EU 3rd country rules would apply to UK exporters.

Such a situation made it “impossible for industry to adequately prepare” even had they followed govt advice.
2/

It seems that only “this week” did the ministry responsible for fishing - DEFRA - confirm to UK fishing industry that exporting live catch from UK class B waters would now “no longer be possible”.

This was a full 5 weeks after UK left EU single market on 1st January 2021.
3/

The misunderstanding appears to have risen as many in the British fishing industry believed UK govt advice instead of an official EU communication to the UK seafood industry body in December which gained less media traction.
Read 12 tweets

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