This study finds #Wildfires likely to increase in a 1.5°C world as well as a 2.0°C world. #ClimateChange
Particularly interesting: more fires in Amazonia and the Mediterranean.
But this is not a prediction of actual fire activity. Why?
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Particularly interesting: more fires in Amazonia and the Mediterranean.
But this is not a prediction of actual fire activity. Why?
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
For one, this is an atmosphere-only study.
This is a Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project - an attempt to answer the questions set by policymakers under the Paris Agreement for "pre-industrial warming."
happimip.org/about/
This is a Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project - an attempt to answer the questions set by policymakers under the Paris Agreement for "pre-industrial warming."
happimip.org/about/
Why do an atmosphere-only study?
Because the Fire Weather Index is used operationally to estimate fire danger by many countries.
Also, it is a model driven initially by wind, temperature, relative humidity, rain.
cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/sum…
Because the Fire Weather Index is used operationally to estimate fire danger by many countries.
Also, it is a model driven initially by wind, temperature, relative humidity, rain.
cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/sum…
What does the Son et al. (2021) study find? Fire weather conditions will increase for much of the world.
But because this is a HAPPI approach, the actual landscapes and vegetation - i.e., fuels - are not considered. Which they note as not being "fully coupled".
But because this is a HAPPI approach, the actual landscapes and vegetation - i.e., fuels - are not considered. Which they note as not being "fully coupled".
Fires caused by humans mainly; study does not aim to include ignitions.
It also excludes Arctic areas as well as other arid locations, which is why you'll see so little fire in Alaska and Siberia in their model. And Arctic fires appear to be increasing.
nature.com/articles/d4158…
It also excludes Arctic areas as well as other arid locations, which is why you'll see so little fire in Alaska and Siberia in their model. And Arctic fires appear to be increasing.
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Good study? Yes.
Interesting findings? Yes.
Complete model of fire risk under climate change? No. (But it does not purport to be!)
Is it hopeless? NO! Humans are main drivers of fires - and climate change. We can change both things.
Interesting findings? Yes.
Complete model of fire risk under climate change? No. (But it does not purport to be!)
Is it hopeless? NO! Humans are main drivers of fires - and climate change. We can change both things.
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