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17 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Houston: downtown vs suburb tonight
Austin: downtown vs suburb

Dallas doing the right thing here

Houston: lights off now

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More from @Barton_options

Barton Profile picture
18 Feb
The 2021 Texas Freeze -- a replay of 2007 Jetblue Valentine's day crisis magnified by 10,000 times.

what happened: Texas had a few inches of snow on 2/14-15. Power producer not prepared, and gas well froze in the sub-10F weather. Texas lost 30% of its electricity production.
More than 4 million customers (1 customer = 1 house) lost power: most had power outage of more than 48 hrs. some could be out of power for another 2 days in this freezing weather.

So what did Texas government/grid/utilities do? They pulled a jetblue: rather than admitting that things won't improve until the gas wells thaw (when temperature goes into 40s), they keep saying they are doing their best for recovery, giving people false hope.
Read 7 tweets
Barton Profile picture
17 Feb
7 days after the intermittent blackout started (evening Feb 11th), we received these heart-warming message this morning. /s
I am just grateful that I still have 5 inches of snow in my backyard, which i can melt to flush my toilet in the unlikely event that they cut off water too. 🤣🤣🤣
With electricity still at $9 per kWh, I will let you guys know in a few weeks what life looks like when USD loses purchasing power.....🥶🥶
Read 4 tweets
Barton Profile picture
15 Feb
Lighting up empty office building just to plunge Texas into rolling blackouts in the middle of a snow storm.

Going through a trading day without power outage has become a luxury.🤨 Image
Wallstreetbets squeezing Texas electricity market in the middle of night right now?

/s Image
We used to be able to import electricity from Mexico.

Guess we are not even getting electricity from the rest of the US these days?

forbes.com/sites/christop…
Read 7 tweets
Barton Profile picture
3 Feb
1/6 The economic calculation of COVID19 vaccine in China

China has lagged in COVID vaccine administration in comparison to many countries, including those who has no local vaccine production capacity, e.g. Sweden, UAE.

Why? pure economics.
2/ China's testing/tracing/isolating measure has mostly been effective and its economy/population is currently largely unaffected.

At the same time, COVID19 is causing real human suffering and economic pain in the many countries. The demand for vaccines far exceeds the supply
3/ So COVID vaccines are very expensive now.

With more vaccine candidates becoming approved (NVAX J&J, AZ and others), supply will eventually exceed demand, and COVID vaccine value will plummet.
Read 6 tweets
Barton Profile picture
1 Feb
1/13 My most optimistic take so far:

COVID is just common cold, but sadly we are ALL pre-Columbian native Americans.

disclaimer: everything below is entirely theoretical (i.e. speculative). no medical advice.
2/13, "It's just another cold"

Given what I know now, SARS-COV2 appears to be NOT much worse than common cold coronavirus, e.g. HCoV-NL63.

For young kids, SARS-CoV2 is not that worse than HCoV-NL63: most of them are asymptomatic, except for a few mildly symptomatic ones
3/ Esp. for infants, their immune systems have never encountered any coronaviruses. And SARS-CoV2 are handled just like the other common-cold coronavirus, without much fuss.

But this training of immune system does protect them from severe disease when they becomes adult.
Read 13 tweets
Barton Profile picture
30 Jan
1/ Short interest # is not what you think when there is a massive option interest for ITM calls
2/ How do you exit your deep ITM GME calls, when bid-ask spread is crazy and GME is highly volatile itself (call prices not catching up as quickly as it should)?

You short sell GME to flatten your delta to 0. much better liquidity.

Also you can keep scalping gamma.
3/ retail folks may or may not do this, but whales are sophisticated.

they could also sell an OTM put and short-sell more GME to get out completely.
Read 8 tweets

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