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John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
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17 Feb, 6 tweets, 3 min read
NEW: the UK is currently on course to deliver a first dose to all over-50s by the end of March, even assuming no increase in vaccine supply or pace of delivery.

At current rates *all adults* could have 1st dose in August, and 2nd dose early Sept.

Story: ft.com/content/3e4a5e…
Even with very modest increases in supply and delivery, that date comes forward considerably, with all adults fully vaccinated in July.

The scenario shown below assumes a 2.5% weekly increase.
This echoes comments made to @SamCoatesSky by the head of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, saying all adults could be double-dosed by Sept, or maybe Aug, or even sooner if needed
There had been concerns supply would be bumpy, with dips along the way. The government’s own stated goal of getting first doses to groups 5-9 by April 30 suggested they don’t expect 3m a week to remain perpetually doable.

These latest comments and data hint otherwise.
Read more in our story here: ft.com/content/3e4a5e…
And finally a shout-out to @chrischirp who carried out a similar exercise a couple of days ago, though our assumptions about roll-out differ very slightly

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More from @jburnmurdoch

John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
5 Feb
NEW:

Cases & hospital admissions in Israel are falling steeply among vaccinated age groups, in the first clear sign worldwide that Covid-19 jabs are preventing illness 💉🎉

Rates are falling much more slowly (if at all) among under-vaccinated groups.

ft.com/content/0cdc85…
We’ve seen very promising data from trials, but this is first evidence 'in the wild' that vaccines are working as hoped.

Data are from @segal_eran’s team at @weizmannscience, who compared case & hospital rates in 60+ age group (heavily vaccinated) and under-60s (less vaccinated)
That age group split is especially useful because of how Israel has phased its vaccination roll-out.

Between Dec 20 And Feb 2, vaccination rates rocketed from zero to 80% at age 60+. Rollout among under-60s began later and is climbing more slowly.
Read 7 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
2 Feb
NEW: fresh data from trials in Brazil, South Africa and the UK shows the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is highly effective with a 12 week gap between doses.

Efficacy is in fact much higher with a 12 week interval than a shorter gap

Story by @donatopmancini: ft.com/content/de00fe…
The data also show that a single dose delivers strong protection that — crucially — does not wane quickly.

12 weeks after the first dose, efficacy is still well above 70%.
And perhaps most importantly of all, the data found that not even one recipient of the vaccine became severely ill with Covid-19 requiring hospitalisation

Every single participant who was admitted to hospital with Covid-19 was in the placebo group

Story: ft.com/content/de00fe…
Read 4 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
30 Jan
Lazy, rainy Saturdays are for making paella
And here's a pupdate from someone who's had a long day
Think that's actually my first paella since the food zone at Coachella 2019. Right now the world of music festivals seems like ancient history, but I have faith for a big comeback in 2022 🤞🤞🤞
Read 4 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
29 Jan
Two great papers out today on how to improve compliance with restrictions and thus make real, lasting inroads against viral transmission, getting us out of the tunnel faster.

Turns out the answer is not blunt instruments, slogans, threats and fines (who knew?)

Micro-thread:
1) @mugecevik and co on how you can’t threaten/fine your way to adherence bmj.com/content/372/bm…

Transmission risk is highest in poorer communities who face pressures *not* to isolate. Trials show: when offered support, people are more likely to report contacts & seek isolation
2) A large survey by @BaharTuncgenc and co finds that when encouraging people to follow Covid guidance, positive messages and social encouragement work better than threatening or negative messages theconversation.com/why-were-more-…

I particularly love this line: Image
Read 5 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
27 Jan
NEW: white people in England aged 80+ are being vaccinated at twice the rate of black people, and rates in deprived neighbourhoods are lagging behind less deprived areas ft.com/content/a831fc…

The gaps are widening, suggesting fundamental challenges in ensuring equal protection
These inequalities are especially concerning given the disproportionate impact of Covid-19 on ethnic minority groups.

The very groups that are most at risk from the disease, are thus far the least likely to have received protection.
The findings come from a team of researchers including @bengoldacre, who analysed data from 23m people in England to explore patterns of vaccine coverage by demographics & socio-economics.

The analysis will be repeated weekly, and Ben explains more here
Read 6 tweets
John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
26 Jan
Somehow even 12 months into the pandemic, people are saying "yes but how many of those 100k UK deaths were due to Covid and how many were due to lockdowns?"

Time for a (short!) thread:
1) @PHE_uk tracks deaths by underlying cause fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports…

As of Jan 8, 82,180 deaths in England named Covid-19 on death certificate.

Of these, C-19 was *underlying cause* in 74,000, or 90%. These aren’t people who tested positive, recovered and then fell down stairs.
2) We also have data from @ICNARC suggesting that deaths from many other causes are actually *down* this year.

ICU admissions for trauma and even self-harm are lower this year than usual.
Read 7 tweets

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