Tight well insulated homes perform well, exhibit A:
This 5000 sf new home in Cleveland with an 80kbtu 98% furnace and 4 ton heat pump is only at 67% capacity at 8F. That’s about 53kbtu/18kw output.
A 4 ton heat pump would be appropriate here. For a huge house!
As we discuss resilience, air tightness is important. This house clocked a 1025 cfm50 blower door or about 1 ACH50.
Exhibit B: 2300 sf 1950 built ranch. 3 ton heat pump. 2000 cfm50. This heat pump shuts down automatically below 3 F. 5 kw/15,000 btus of backup heat is handling the house at this moment.
Exhibit C: 2200 sf new ranch home, 545 cfm50. 4 ton Bryant 288 heat pump. This also shuts off below 3F and goes to resistance. Medium resistance is 10 kw or about 34,000 BTUs.
As a counterpoint I've seen similar 2500 sf houses running their 80kbtu (and larger!) furnaces flat out in these temps.
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This is a ~2000 sf 1950s Cape Cod in Cleveland Heights.
Full case study on the insulation and air sealing project we did here. It was about $20K and was focused in the attics of this house (it has 4, or was it 5?)
The house started off really leaky at 5800 cfm50 blower door. We got it down to 3100 cfm50. Still not great, but far better. And good enough it turned out.
The house fundamentally changed. The second floor wasn't 10 degrees warmer in summer anymore, it was within 2-3 degrees.
As painful as it is to watch what's going on in Texas, the residential solution basically looks like what we should be doing anyway:
-Tighter, more efficient homes
-Smaller, more efficient HVAC
-Batteries
-More local generation like community solar
Hard to sell tho!
The fact of the matter is we humans don't change until the pain of not changing is greater than the pain of changing.
In residential resiliency creating a comfortable, healthy, and efficient home is a great deal of work. Work that few contractors are good at selling or doing.
The situation in Texas brings up very valid concerns about electrification - how do we handle the really tough cold snaps?
The heat pump water heater price difference was outrageous!
$4600 is high for the midwest, but I can see it. $7000 is highway robbery. And I seldom give contractors a hard time for pricing.
That's what having fear priced in looks like, or not wanting the job.
Most of California can basically swap a furnace for a heat pump, although the experience with single stage equipment may be mediocre (loud and lots of blowing air.)
Cold climates need to swap very carefully or experiences will suck, which will act like an anchor on demand.
This is part of integrated project design - have a plan so you can hold everyone accountable. A duct design is not totally sacred, there will be challenges in the real world not reflected here, but it helps guide the project and deliver better results.
This isn't needed on every job, but it should always be available if needed.