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17 Feb, 5 tweets, 3 min read
The latest round of federal aid is hitting the economy: Big bounceback in retail sales last month (+5.3%) after three straight monthly declines.
census.gov/retail/marts/w…
Retail sales (incl. food services) are now up nearly 8% from pre-pandemic levels. Amazing rebound from the more than 20% decline last spring.
Picture looks very different for restaurants/bars. They saw a jump in January too, but are still way behind where they were before the pandemic, and haven't fully made up for the ground lost in the fall/winter.
The aggregate trends in retail sales obscure some truly bonkers shifts beneath the surface. Grocery-store sales spiked last spring and remain elevated. Online sales surged and are still edging up. Clothing-store sales cratered and are still depressed.
It's always good to view December/January retail sales data with a bit of caution because of big seasonal issues. But it's very hard not to look at the big Nov/Dec drops and the even bigger Jan gain and see the effects of a) the virus, and b) government aid.

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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
5 Feb
The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a modest rebound from December's decline but still a much slower pace of growth than over the summer.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.
nytimes.com/live/2021/02/0…
Revisions make December's decline look worse, now down 227k jobs. November also revised down.
We're still down nearly 10 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, and we gained essentially no jobs in January. We're barely even climbing out of the hole right ow.
Read 7 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
4 Feb
The kiddo decided to start taking random photos around the house and turn them into grunge-era album covers.
So your mission is... name the band/album. Image
This one is definitely catching that Windows 95 vibe. Image
Getting into collage. Image
Read 4 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
15 Jan
Given the renewed attention on the possibility of a $15 federal minimum wage, it's worth noting that "$15/hour" looks very different in 2021 than it did when the "Fight for $15" movement began in 2012. (Thread)
Obviously, there's been some inflation. $15 in 2012 is the equivalent of around $17 today. But that's only a small part of it. At least before the pandemic, wages were rising faster than inflation, *especially for low earners.*
In 2012, a quarter of jobs were in places where the median wage was under $15/hour (meaning more than half of all workers in those places would have been owed raises). In 2019, less than 5% of jobs were in such places.
Read 17 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
15 Jan
Retail sales fell for the third straight month in December -- clear sign the resurgent pandemic is taking a toll.
Important to note, though, that unlike with most measures of the economy, retail sales are actually ABOVE their prepandemic level. Up 2.6% from February, and 2.9% over the past year. So not a clean story like with jobs.
Very different story with restaurants, of course. They were down much more in December (-4.5%), and are down more than 20% since before the pandemic.
Read 4 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
14 Jan
Big spike in unemployment claims last week: 1.2 million people filed for unemployment benefits (regular state programs, not seasonally adjusted). Another 284k filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
nytimes.com/live/2021/01/1…
Important to note that the big jump may reflect a bounceback after the holidays, when filings are often depressed. But this level is extraordinarily high by any measure.
Seasonally adjusted claims also jumped, to just under 1 million.
Read 7 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
2 Jan
A year ago, I did a thread on my efforts to diversify my source list. I tracked the race and gender of my sources again this year. In the interest of accountability, here's an update on my progress.

Here's my original thread for reference:
Topline findings: Roughly half of my 400+ sources this year were women, including a hair over half of the people I quoted as experts (and just under half of the people I quoted as "regular people" -- workers, business owners, etc.).
(Note: I also have a category for elected officials, spokespeople, etc. They're included in the totals here but not broken out separately.)
Read 24 tweets

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