"Frequently Asked Questions" about the data I post regarding suicides in 2020 not changing overall from 2019. Due to the number of requests/questions I get, I will stop answering them personally if they are listed here.
FAQ 1:
What about "attempts?"
* numbers of attempts are not necessarily related to deaths numbers of death suicide (by far, most who attempt do not end up dying by suicide); overall, attempts are down in emergency departments (But the proportion of presentations is up)
FAQ 2:
What about "Deaths of Despair"
I hate the term.
"Despair" (what this ugly lumping calls "worsening socioeconomics") affects ALL DEATHS. It's honestly NOT OK and IGNORANT about social effects on health to use this term to separate suicide, overdose, and alcoholism.
FAQ 3:
What about "Overdoses"?
Most overdoses (especially fentanyl/"opioid crisis") are unintentional. Suicides are intentional. This report is on suicides. I care very much about overdoses and without question, it seems clear that in many states unintentional overdoses are up.
FAQ 4:
Do you have subgroup information?
VERY EARLY. There is emerging evidence that in North America, youth suicides are unchanged, military suicides are unchanged, Black and Hispanic suicides increased (White decreased), and there is no gender difference.
FAQ 5:
"How dare you minimize the mental illness during the pandemic?" / "Why are you pro-lockdown?" / "You want us all to suffer!"
Hey that last one isn't a question.
I'm sorry data doesn't match your ideology, this is a report showing data, not an ideology.
FAQ 6:
"Is suicidology real or made up?"
It's real! It's an important area of mortality research!
Advocate with your local, provincial/state, and federal governments to make REAL suicide prevention a priority (not just hotlines).
Honestly, follow me, I will teach you how to read that article better. I deconstruct them regularly. I will teach you how to read it so you can understand reality, not the spin.
If it has new numbers, send it to me! newdatatoshare@gmail.com
Honestly, there is so much disinformation out there, my goal is to provide information. That's what I do. We should use data to guide our knowledge, not the other way around!
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3 new jurisdictions are in:
* NJ (decreased 16.5%)
* HI (decreased 26.8% April-Dec)
* Franklin County, OH (decreased 6.1% Jan-Sep)
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Due to lag, the "-11%" number is probably more like -4%. Interesting to note, this matches very well with the @CDCgov Jan-July report, which shows that suicides are about 4.6% fewer in 2020.
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What these data are not:
NOT A PREDICTION:
* other states or counties
* 2021
* other parts of the world
What these data are:
A REPORT:
* the counties and states reported
* everything that has been reported
* for the time ranges reported!
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Using a quick example of how sensational numbers in headlines can paint an incomplete picture. In Franklin County, Ohio, Suicides are overall down in 2020, but the article portrays something different for youth:
Of course, the headline is not incorrect, but there is a larger context to provide. Using the data provided, I'm plotting the youth (8y-25y) suicide rate next to the adult+ suicide rate.
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As the headline states, there is an increase in 2020 vs 2019. However, 2019 also saw a substantial decrease, and just 4 years prior, 2017 saw an even greater increase from the previous year.
2) Obviously, this is quite an increase. 41% in a year is significant and concerning. It is in very different from North America, which have so far have not shown a youth increase. (Similarly, suicides in Japanese women skyrocketed whereas no change in North America/Europe)
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It's important to note that this number has been increasing sharply for a while, this is definitely amplified however.
Every nation so far that has reported its suicide rates for 2020, compared to previous years. No change since 2019 (but down from 2017).
Despite a global pandemic, no current evidence suggests a 2020 rise in suicides.
2/ There are VERY IMPORTANT NOTES to this data. If you do not understand these notes, you will not understand this data, and you should not analyse it AT ALL except "there is no evidence to suggest an increase in suicides in 2020." That's it for you!
3/ First, it is crucial to not compare between nations, because different agencies, reporting structures, and cultural factors will influence reported suicide rates. Malawi's 1.4/100k is not comparable to Canada's 12.3/100k. At all. Don't do it.
In the states and counties that have so far reported suicide numbers, for the months in which we have data, SUICIDE RATES DECREASED IN AMERICA IN 2020.
(every word in that sentence matters, and has to be fully understood)
2/ These numbers are NOT:
* an "estimate" of 2020 suicides.
* a prediction of what 2021 holds
* a guarantee that 2020 will overall show less suicides
3/ These numbers ARE:
* a comprehensive scan of all reported 2020 suicide numbers, to give a full picture of what has been reported without bias
A quick thread on being a suicidologist, and the absolutely humble knowledge that we can't predict anything yet with all the expertise, computing power, and variables in the world:
"Follow the data, do not get ahead of it."
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When the pandemic started, many of the interviewed experts only had 2018 data showing that rates of suicide were increasing. They used that information in March 2020 and April 2020 to say "it was increasing before and it will get worse now"
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Meanwhile the actual statistics for 2019 came out around December and guess what, 2019s rate had fallen. So every expert, opining on TV, online, print, even in scientific articles, didn't know that one of the foundations for their argument fall away.
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