Using a quick example of how sensational numbers in headlines can paint an incomplete picture. In Franklin County, Ohio, Suicides are overall down in 2020, but the article portrays something different for youth:
dispatch.com/story/news/loc…
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dispatch.com/story/news/loc…
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Of course, the headline is not incorrect, but there is a larger context to provide. Using the data provided, I'm plotting the youth (8y-25y) suicide rate next to the adult+ suicide rate.
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As the headline states, there is an increase in 2020 vs 2019. However, 2019 also saw a substantial decrease, and just 4 years prior, 2017 saw an even greater increase from the previous year.
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In fact, in 2017 the increase in the youth rate was 113%, and in 2004, it was 88%. So the 75% increase seen in 2020 is certainly among the top 20, but it's not a record, nor is it unprecedented.
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In other words, the way the numbers "bounce around" (the "variance") can account for a large degree of the change here.
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The rate itself, however, at 12.0/100k, is a record for the past 21 years, though whether or not its due to pandemic or if its part of the increase year-over-year the US has been seeing remains to be seen.
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Because of the moral panic about youth suicides and the pandemic, this statistic will get FAR more airtime than the Illinois statistic, which showed that, compared to the 3 year average, youth suicides have not changed.
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When there is enough youth data to synthesize into a reportable database, I will share it, but I want to be clear that *so far*, in the limited # of jurisdictions I have, youth suicide rates have not increased in North America past any trends.
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