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David Henig Profile picture
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17 Feb, 14 tweets, 4 min read
So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.
The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.
So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.
But that's been the consistent UK problem in relations with the EU since 2016. Lack of focus on getting the right internal structures, people, asks, strategy, too much attention on being tough and a single leader.
News just in. This doesn't necessarily mean the right structure being put into UK-EU relations. I suspect Frost's main role is to ensure no renegotiations with the EU.

Also, wonder what this says about the PM's trust in Michael Gove?
In fact Frost takes over Gove's role in EU relations. Buckle up, I suspect this means turbulence ahead. Frost appears much more hardline in thinking than Gove, though end result of UK climbdown has typically been the same.
This tallies with my instinct. In particular I think Frost had a hand in the rather strong Northern Ireland letter sent by Gove, was probably not happy Gove then backed down completely over the content...
I am far from clear that today means Lord Frost will now be Cabinet lead for the whole EU relationship, as in managing all the day to day issues. Still much to be worked out I suspect.
Also just considering the possibility that Michael Gove might want David Frost to own all the consequences of his Brexit deal, and the compromises that will be required. But surely such thinking is too cynical?
Personalities aside I agree with this. Negotiating and operating a deal are not the same job, and it makes a lot of sense to hand over. But the politics I suspect do not allow.
This is important on UK-EU relations. Problems including:

1/ Northern Ireland protocol
2/ Existing business lost / compensation
3/ Financial services equivalence
4/ Large business asking for stronger EU ties
5/ Potential new EU restrictions

What if we shout loudly, slowly and (I'm sure this is important) in English?
Not feeling particularly reassured. "What the new Minister meant to say was that his first priority was the country and he thinks he may best of service continuing with EU relations..."

Nah. My ball, give it back...
The deals, both the Withdrawal Agreement and Trade and Cooperation Agreement, are poor from a UK point of view. So poor the PM can't honestly admit their content. Politically they look safe from Labour, but internal tensions grow (musicians, farmers etc). Watch that...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
19 Feb
My Friday provocation - which I know is not widely shared in Brexit twitter circles - is that the UK government has been structured wrongly on Brexit since 2016 and the appointment of Lord Frost compounds the error. Not about personalities but balance of roles... 1/
So in the usual UK government system departments set policy and implement it, and the centre of government (Cabinet Office, Number 10) coordinates, arbitrates, sets overall strategy, and all the other things you'd expect from a centre. Though without much resource tbf... 2/
For international policy there was always a Prime Minister's 'sherpa' who was also the head of a Cabinet Office secretariat, their role to represent the PM at various international meetings, drawing on all different departmental interests. A specific and limited role perhaps. 3/
Read 13 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Feb
Strangely not mentioned in this story - the fact that the US, EU and Japan agreed to sytrengthen rules to tackle Chinese subsidies in January 2020. So we appear to be urging the EU to join something they joined and we didn't over a year ago. thesun.co.uk/news/14089864/…
Does it matter that there is a media story about trade briefed by the government that is almost completely inaccurate? Because these four paragraphs are complete fantasy. The UK are trying to divide the EU and US on trade, and we were the ones putting up barriers to trade. Image
I had quite a shock recently when a mainstream US think-tanker described the UK in the same camp as Poland and Hungary as having been taken over in part by populist nationalism. Of course the UK government would deny this, but do they care that this is being suggested?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
The latest on UK-New Zealand according to what passes as UK government transparency. Tells us nothing of use whatsoever. gov.uk/government/new…
Fortunately we can tell you a little more about what is happening in UK-New Zealand trade talks courtesy of the New Zealand government, who take consultation seriously. mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade-a…
Let us compare a little shall we. Here is what the UK government says about tariff negotiations with New Zealand. All under control. Image
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
This is I think one of the better articles on the subject of UK-EU relations published from a Brexit-leaning point of view. Quite a lot in here that is worth considering.

Start with the the fact there are those in both EU and UK who want the other to fail. True. Rarely said.
We then go on to the EU treating the UK as a third country. Still I think some denial here of what this means. It means the EU will behave badly towards us. That's not our special privilege. That's the reality of modern trade and regulations. You'll find it in the US as well.
So we come to a risk point. The UK government argues that the EU is behaving badly towards us because of Brexit. They want to avoid accusations that they should have seen it coming, and chose this path. The article is right we need to cool it. But again, can we accept realities?
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
Cuts right to the heart of possibly the most significant Brexit myth in the Conservative Party, that the EU is a uniquely heavy regulator holding back business.

When actually regulation, whether of bananas or buildings, is a developed country norm, including the US.
The Brussels regulatory myth also sits heavily on one former journalist. Boris Johnson was mocking EU regulations in the late 90s but nobody was bothering to check whether the rest of the world were also regulating. They were. Of course there were mistakes. But universal action.
We tend to forget that the growth of regulations in the 1980s and particularly 90s was largely a centre-right initiative, a corollary to privatisation. So the state would no longer be extensively involved in providing services, but would regulate instead.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Feb
The phrase "high quality free trade agreement" seems like "free trade" one for which the UK government has its own meaning. In both cases they mean not free trade.
Disagree with this though. The obvious problems with the EU deal will at some stage be exploited by a leader more skilled than Starmer (while still talking tough). It might take time, but such a shallow relationship is not the global norm.
As I've said before my view is that there will be quiet movements towards closer EU relations particularly in terms of regulations - because that is economically beneficial and virtually cost free. Once you realise that non-tariff barriers are a real problem.
Read 4 tweets

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