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David Henig Profile picture
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17 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The phrase "high quality free trade agreement" seems like "free trade" one for which the UK government has its own meaning. In both cases they mean not free trade.
Disagree with this though. The obvious problems with the EU deal will at some stage be exploited by a leader more skilled than Starmer (while still talking tough). It might take time, but such a shallow relationship is not the global norm.
As I've said before my view is that there will be quiet movements towards closer EU relations particularly in terms of regulations - because that is economically beneficial and virtually cost free. Once you realise that non-tariff barriers are a real problem.
This is true about UK-US relations. But much depends on whether the US realise that close ties with the UK are likely to damage relations with the EU. Suspect that will be realised, but this is one to watch.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
The latest on UK-New Zealand according to what passes as UK government transparency. Tells us nothing of use whatsoever. gov.uk/government/new…
Fortunately we can tell you a little more about what is happening in UK-New Zealand trade talks courtesy of the New Zealand government, who take consultation seriously. mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade-a…
Let us compare a little shall we. Here is what the UK government says about tariff negotiations with New Zealand. All under control. Image
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
This is I think one of the better articles on the subject of UK-EU relations published from a Brexit-leaning point of view. Quite a lot in here that is worth considering.

Start with the the fact there are those in both EU and UK who want the other to fail. True. Rarely said.
We then go on to the EU treating the UK as a third country. Still I think some denial here of what this means. It means the EU will behave badly towards us. That's not our special privilege. That's the reality of modern trade and regulations. You'll find it in the US as well. Image
So we come to a risk point. The UK government argues that the EU is behaving badly towards us because of Brexit. They want to avoid accusations that they should have seen it coming, and chose this path. The article is right we need to cool it. But again, can we accept realities? Image
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
Cuts right to the heart of possibly the most significant Brexit myth in the Conservative Party, that the EU is a uniquely heavy regulator holding back business.

When actually regulation, whether of bananas or buildings, is a developed country norm, including the US.
The Brussels regulatory myth also sits heavily on one former journalist. Boris Johnson was mocking EU regulations in the late 90s but nobody was bothering to check whether the rest of the world were also regulating. They were. Of course there were mistakes. But universal action.
We tend to forget that the growth of regulations in the 1980s and particularly 90s was largely a centre-right initiative, a corollary to privatisation. So the state would no longer be extensively involved in providing services, but would regulate instead.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Feb
So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.
The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.
So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Feb
To be honest the pressure to negotiate a better EU deal - on Northern Ireland, SPS checks, musicians - has come quicker than I thought. Quite right though, it was a poor deal for the UK's trade interests. politicshome.com/thehouse/artic…
But it is also why the EU issues isn't going away from UK politics any time soon. Because EU trade links are so obviously much more important than any other country. Not many artists are going to tour Asia. A lot want to tour Europe. And the same in so many other fields.
See also - why the majority of countries in the world have their deepest trade agreements with neighbours, including customs unions and single markets. Because it is both common sense and economically proven that you can trade more with neighbours.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Feb
Sounds reasonable but as ever probe a little further and the problems easily emerge - why is the UK so well placed to trade with countries a long way away? In what? How will Free Trade Agreements help? How will trade develop?

No answers.
More likely if you lose opportunities in your nearby markets the initial effect will be to lose some global trade as well. theguardian.com/business/2021/…
And as @NickCohen4 points out with a very small walkon role from me, a lot of the global trade talk at the moment has no actual content. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 4 tweets

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