X : Did you say the future is serverless.
Me : Yes and the new practices, new needs met ... but that was quite a few years ago. Why?
X : Do you think there is room for another serverless play?
Me : Oh, that war is over. In the West, it's AWS (1st), MSFT (2nd).
X : What do you mean it's over.
Me : It's over. The battle started 7 years ago, it's finished. Winners declared etc. It's just the washup now.
X : What about Kubernetes?
Me : I thought it was amazing that Amazon got a 7 year head start in IaaS ...
... I couldn't believe it when AWS was given another 7 year head start in serverless whilst everyone messed around with Kubernetes. I mean, get it wrong once is ok but twice? They must have been laughing.
X : There is no value in Kubernetes.
Me : Oh, there's money to be made ...
... you forget the laggards. There's about 15 years of decent money (increasingly a more ugly market) in selling tin, data centres and old practices left.

You've got another 5-10 years of good DevOps money and another 15 years of good money in a grim market ...
... those laggards take time. There's plenty of money to retire on. It's just not the future.
X : So, 25 years of DevOps / K8s money?
Me : Yep. Next 5-10 years will tend to be kind. Last 15 years or so will be grim in that market. Plenty of time to retire if that's what you want.
Me : You could be a bit evil?
X : Explain?
Me : Sell a bit of tin / dc now then flog a devops / K8s migration plan in five years or include building the environment and then flog a serverless migration plan say in 10-15 years? Triple down on those migration plans, make a killing.
X : When does PaaS eat the world?
Me : Keep up. The industry had to rename PaaS years ago because everyone kept renaming their thing.
... true to form, a chunk of the industry seems to be renaming their latest thing to serverless anyway. Expect the serverless data centre soon, if not already, provided by Oracle. They'll probably call it Edge Serverless or something. Whatever.
X : But serverless is small compared to IaaS.
Me : Do we really have to go through the punctuated equilibrium and exponential change patterns again? We did this in 2011. You can't Handy 2nd Wave yourself into this market, it's over when it gets to about 1% of its potential.
X: So where would a legit multicloud play fit in?
Me : About 2008-2011?

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More from @swardley

19 Feb
Eh @bryanrbeal? No, it's really important that even once vaccinated that you wear masks and socially distance until we understand the effect more, the R number is very low and probably everyone has been vaccinated ...
... there is a world of difference between reducing symptoms (and reducing hospital load) and transmission. We absolutely must get transmission and cases down (hence masks, social distance) for various reasons including the risk of mutation.
And this is not a national thing, it's a global thing. There's little point in vaccinating a single country and hoping borders will stop future problems if the disease is allowed to rampage and therefore mutate in other areas with low levels of vaccination ...
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
"rushing headlong into Agile without due consideration could hobble rather than improve your business" ... that comment is good ->
To bring you bang upto speed circa 2006 then remember ... no such thing as one size fits all ... i.e. Image
... take a leaf out of a leading engineering effort (UK high speed rail) that introduced multiple methods in 2012 for building its railway in a virtual world (reducing both cost and time to delivery). Go ask @GoAgileGov ... Image
Read 4 tweets
18 Feb
Whilst there is debate over causes, the hypothesis is generally considered "reasonable", published by the BMJ from research at UCL ... of course, in this post truth world anyone can declare this as myth, nonsense and "provably untrue" which is itself untrue. It is undecided ->
Alas, this is the problem with unsettled matters. Even with settled matters where scientific consenus is decided, some can always say "prove it" and point to ever more extreme counterfactuals which have to be disproved, slowly, one by one - see climate change.
The same tactics are being used by another group of extremists to try and counter lockdown. Whilst there are counterfactuals, the scientific consensus is reasonably settled on the benefits but that won't stop those individuals from peddling their beliefs as the truth.
Read 7 tweets
17 Feb
X : What's your view on bitcoin?
Me : Kidding? Still the same as it was in 2013 when I mapped the space. A payload of laissez faire, a delivery mechanism of greed.
X : So, it'll go up?
Me : Oh god. Why would anyone want this - blog.gardeviance.org/2013/11/a-spoi… ... oh yes, greed.
X : But ...
Me : No buts. As per 2013, the exception is China which will become "the capital and innovation superpower with extensive and virtually untraceable investments in all countries, a mixed economy model and high levels of social mobility, social cohesion and stability"
X : You seem very bullish on China.
Me : Bullish has nothing to do with it. China Gov just plays a better game. When I looked in 2015, I never managed to find the group that was co-ordinating it. There's some real skill at play, started by Deng Xiaoping and continued on.
Read 5 tweets
17 Feb
One of my favourites recent maps ...
X : Why do you like the map so much?
Me : The same tools that allow us to radicalise, to mobilise and to manipulate online causing so much political chaos are the same tools which allow us to challenge orthodoxy in healthcare, in finance and in economics.
This theme of power or more importantly "who has the power" is re-occuring in so many industries today - leadingedgeforum.com/insights/who-h…
Read 13 tweets
17 Feb
X : What is the argument against national cloud?
Me : See Texas. End of story.
X : Explain?
Me : You attempt to localise services for reasons of "sovereignty" without understanding the wider landscape then you expose yourself to new threats and weakness. Co-operation and distribution are your friends for any infrastructural service.
X : Infrastructural?
Me : Any commodity or utility component that are consumed by other components in a chain whether compute, water, electricity or transport components like road, rail etc.
Read 23 tweets

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