Whilst there is debate over causes, the hypothesis is generally considered "reasonable", published by the BMJ from research at UCL ... of course, in this post truth world anyone can declare this as myth, nonsense and "provably untrue" which is itself untrue. It is undecided ->
Alas, this is the problem with unsettled matters. Even with settled matters where scientific consenus is decided, some can always say "prove it" and point to ever more extreme counterfactuals which have to be disproved, slowly, one by one - see climate change.
The same tactics are being used by another group of extremists to try and counter lockdown. Whilst there are counterfactuals, the scientific consensus is reasonably settled on the benefits but that won't stop those individuals from peddling their beliefs as the truth.
And, of course, they can always argue that specific incidents of progress in history have required some to take an opposing view to the consensus ... this, is true but that does not make their arguments any more true.
The worst examples of this is when they turn to the line of prove me wrong or there is no proof against their idea ... the abscence of proof is not proof itself.
What you need to remember is that scientific consensus works on the principle that "this is the best model we have". All models are wrong but this is the best one. Unfortunately (and also fortunately) that means the model can never be truly proven and can always be countered ...
... which is why when someone says that this is "provably untrue" then you must ask them for a model that is more "provably true" than the one that they are dismissing.

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More from @swardley

19 Feb
Eh @bryanrbeal? No, it's really important that even once vaccinated that you wear masks and socially distance until we understand the effect more, the R number is very low and probably everyone has been vaccinated ...
... there is a world of difference between reducing symptoms (and reducing hospital load) and transmission. We absolutely must get transmission and cases down (hence masks, social distance) for various reasons including the risk of mutation.
And this is not a national thing, it's a global thing. There's little point in vaccinating a single country and hoping borders will stop future problems if the disease is allowed to rampage and therefore mutate in other areas with low levels of vaccination ...
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
"rushing headlong into Agile without due consideration could hobble rather than improve your business" ... that comment is good ->
To bring you bang upto speed circa 2006 then remember ... no such thing as one size fits all ... i.e. Image
... take a leaf out of a leading engineering effort (UK high speed rail) that introduced multiple methods in 2012 for building its railway in a virtual world (reducing both cost and time to delivery). Go ask @GoAgileGov ... Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
X : What's your view on bitcoin?
Me : Kidding? Still the same as it was in 2013 when I mapped the space. A payload of laissez faire, a delivery mechanism of greed.
X : So, it'll go up?
Me : Oh god. Why would anyone want this - blog.gardeviance.org/2013/11/a-spoi… ... oh yes, greed.
X : But ...
Me : No buts. As per 2013, the exception is China which will become "the capital and innovation superpower with extensive and virtually untraceable investments in all countries, a mixed economy model and high levels of social mobility, social cohesion and stability"
X : You seem very bullish on China.
Me : Bullish has nothing to do with it. China Gov just plays a better game. When I looked in 2015, I never managed to find the group that was co-ordinating it. There's some real skill at play, started by Deng Xiaoping and continued on.
Read 5 tweets
17 Feb
X : Did you say the future is serverless.
Me : Yes and the new practices, new needs met ... but that was quite a few years ago. Why?
X : Do you think there is room for another serverless play?
Me : Oh, that war is over. In the West, it's AWS (1st), MSFT (2nd).
X : What do you mean it's over.
Me : It's over. The battle started 7 years ago, it's finished. Winners declared etc. It's just the washup now.
X : What about Kubernetes?
Me : I thought it was amazing that Amazon got a 7 year head start in IaaS ...
... I couldn't believe it when AWS was given another 7 year head start in serverless whilst everyone messed around with Kubernetes. I mean, get it wrong once is ok but twice? They must have been laughing.
X : There is no value in Kubernetes.
Me : Oh, there's money to be made ...
Read 11 tweets
17 Feb
One of my favourites recent maps ...
X : Why do you like the map so much?
Me : The same tools that allow us to radicalise, to mobilise and to manipulate online causing so much political chaos are the same tools which allow us to challenge orthodoxy in healthcare, in finance and in economics.
This theme of power or more importantly "who has the power" is re-occuring in so many industries today - leadingedgeforum.com/insights/who-h…
Read 13 tweets
17 Feb
X : What is the argument against national cloud?
Me : See Texas. End of story.
X : Explain?
Me : You attempt to localise services for reasons of "sovereignty" without understanding the wider landscape then you expose yourself to new threats and weakness. Co-operation and distribution are your friends for any infrastructural service.
X : Infrastructural?
Me : Any commodity or utility component that are consumed by other components in a chain whether compute, water, electricity or transport components like road, rail etc.
Read 23 tweets

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