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Josh Wolfe Profile picture
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18 Feb, 7 tweets, 3 min read
1/ Current letter to Lux LPs...

Lessons Learned.
Stability + Surprise.
2/ ...Passionate intensities.
...The directional arrow of progress.

What is abundantly acknowledged?
What is scarce + surprising?
3/
An era can be said to end...
when its basic illusions are exhausted.

The natural corrective to bad ideas...is criticism.

Hate + heat follow heretics. Heretics often follow...truth.
4/ GameStop was an EPISODE––
it's the EPILOGUE that matters

Cash on the sidelines....

The WHEN & the WHAT...
5/ SUSPENSE vs SURPRISE.

An abundance of creation NOW...
Portends much destruction LATER...
6/ On domestic policy + geopolitics

Macro effect on
-Real Estate
-Space
-Lux theme of "tech of science"
(cutting-edge scientific tools + instrumentation)
...and 🤗 (news soon;)
7/ Some untold or not widely told stories of progress in 2020 all over the world.

The human progress that comes from SURPRISES in science + tech continues regardless of social chaos...

And that should be NO SUPRISE.

(*rest of letter redacted for LPs...)

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More from @wolfejosh

Josh Wolfe Profile picture
19 Feb
1/ The compounded human INGENUITY that went into this (can't wait to see real high def footage beamed thru satellite relays)...
2/ The brains (chips), cameras (eyes), arms (robotics), heartbeat (power and batteries) is INSANE Image
3/ Full 3D spec explorer mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/space…
Read 5 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
17 Feb
1/ Personal note:

I am generally ‘center left’
i believe in liberal democracy + free market capitalism

our current political moment is imperfect democracy + oft illiberal

our current market moment is distorted with speculative excess, wittingly corrupt promoters + cronyism...
2/
I believe in reducing human suffering + broadly expanding human rights—which means eliminating + shaming discrimination against skin/hair/eye color, body size/shape, gender, sexual preferences, religious beliefs, food, music, clothing choices.

I also believe in free speech
3/ Believing in free speech means the right to criticize and say things that may offend—and having no right to not be criticized or offended.

I can say something you find insulting
and you can correct my ignorance
and respect my subjectivity...
Read 11 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
13 Feb
1/ Likely we test new US political movements
that echo 2008 housing bailout
but for STUDENT LOAN forgiveness

Also played on past stages of
Germany vs Greece
North vs Southern Europe (Italy)

SAVERS vs SPENDTHRIFTS
2/ Obviously it is MORE complicated than profligate spending with other spotlights on inflationary cost of higher ed, driven ever higher by government provision of crazy debt loads, bloated administrative ranks, broken promise that a costly degree was high paying job guarantee...
3/ Excellent @GeorgeWill column in WaPo frames the lines...
washingtonpost.com/opinions/stude…
Read 9 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
12 Feb
1/ Here is my full Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_org talk

will post excerpts later—covering:
*future of R&D + innovation
*history of private funding
*China
*Space Race
*Lux theme of “Tech of Science”
*Miami + how to (and how not to) create tech hubs
cfr.org/event/changes-…
2/ On the unintended consequence of shutting China out of markets for geopolitical competitive reasons

which will make them MORE competitive
as distrust does away with comparative advantage
and stimulates redundant competing space, science, tech races
3/ On

-SERENDIPITY in SCIENCE and the futility of government “directing” discoveries...

-scientists reclassifying or renaming whatever they are working on to get government money given to what politicians deem popular...
Read 5 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
10 Feb
1/
If you CANNOT say when something is OVERVALUED
you CANNOT say you know how to VALUE it

If you buy $1.00 for cost of $0.50—it’s “riskless profit”
(undervalued arb, sure to gain)

If you buy $1.00 for cost of $2.00—it’s “riskless loss”
(overvalued foolishness, sure to lose)
2/
If you cannot VALUE something you do not know if it is UNDERVALUED or OVERVALUED

and thus cannot know if you are taking riskless profit, riskless loss—or profitless risk

The key current test: at what $ price within a 50% +/- range
would #Bitcoin be OVERVALUED?
3/ “Today a young man on acid realized:
everything should be free
Property rights are zerosum oppression by patriarchy Everything’s relative to something which’s relative to nothing
there’s no absolute value
info wants to be free
money is made-up
...Here’s Bob with the weather”
Read 4 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
9 Feb
1/ I wish for a BETTER world for my kids.

A world where
they can *feel* offended but have no right to be protected from feeling offended or feeling uncomfortable if they are insulted for any reason or someone says or does something wrong, ignorant, misinformed, rude or uncivil
2/ A world where
-they can make mistakes and commit errors and be given a chance to correct them and not cancelled

-they can be surrounded + welcoming of diverse people with diverse life experiences + diverse POVs who may also make mistakes + commit errors and BE corrected
3/A world where
-they must COMPETE intellectually, physically, psychologically when there are zero-sum outcomes + lose if they deserve to lose
-they must learn to COOPERATE with people different than themselves with different POVs who they might have to play non zero-sum games w
Read 6 tweets

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