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Original Braila Profile picture
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18 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I want to give @mintzmyer cred for what he has done lately. He has always been incredibly hardworking and VIE research very useful to me. Lately he has been better than good. I am long $ZIM with a lowest buy of 11.40 and the highest of 16.50. Did a lot of research on it early
but kept quiet about it. This was a @mintzmyer VIE original idea that I fortunately grasped and researched basically from the moment it crashed to its crazy low immediately post the IPO. Did I flip it yesterday on the VIE article going public? No, the only thing wrong with the
article is the "20-30 usd" imo (and probably J's too?) It was very likely a consequence strictly of the low price at the time of the crash. I would expect much higher targets as the multiple broker analysts come out with their targets. Saw Fearnleys talk about 40 usd (not rated)
Brokers are blocked from coverage some time more as most of them were involved with the IPO as I understand it. I think this stock will be in its thirties somewhere between now and the report of its Q2 2021.
seekingalpha.com/article/440465…
The "easy money" is not yet all made.

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More from @OriginalBraila

Original Braila Profile picture
30 Nov 20
Let's sort it out:
Scrubber vs ECO vs Size. The $OET & #2020Bulkers advantages and... are there risks to scrubbers from politicians? What would that mean?
1. ECO is about ships using less fuel due to propulsion and general features. That also means less CO2, carbon emissions.
2. Scrubbers is not so much about CO2, only removes like 2%. It is all about cleaning sulphur or the black smoke. The controversy is about putting that into the ocean. The argument for is -a silly low addition vs all the sulphur in the ocean & that sulphur is an airproblem only.
Looking at the current situation scrubbers are an economic failure for all that did retrofits but those that installed when the ships were built got it cheaper and with no offhire time. Being ECO is important, being larger ships is important, being modern is important=premium pay
Read 7 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
29 Nov 20
$OET is not complicated They guide all we need to know. This includes a worst case scenario. Today the market is crap. In this crap market OET just took a 11m VL deal at 30k and a Smax deal at 20k So how do things look if it does not turn Q4 2021? What if bad times continue 2022?
This is projected earnings at the stated rates (spot for vessels not on charter) $OET amortizes faster than depreciation so remove 11 musd (guided) from these numbers and divide by 32.4 m shares and you basically have dividend 2022. 52-11=41 musd/32.4=11nok div or almost 20%yield
In a bad/delayed market, $OET simply stays with Koch and those charters increasing mid 2021 for as long as needed. As they amortize faster than depreciation LTV etc becomes less of an issue every quarter. IF it gets bad for longer.. this is when OET is even more superior to peers
Read 6 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
6 Nov 20
$NMCI has 29 ships. By Jan 2021 my calculation is that 17 of those have reset on average 10k usd higher on 12m contracts.10k x350daysx17=60 musd in increased profits=current MCAP.
My highest possible conviction play coming 6 months at 1.79 usd per share. Feb-May another 6 ships
Rates for 4250TEU Panamaxes keep rising according to the latest info. Could the latest Harpex later today Friday break 20k? harpex.harperpetersen.com/harpexVP.do . To me $NMCI would really surprise if they did not put in at least another short term double. Charters probably re set early.
I think most investors are under the influence of having just watched the tanker spot market and they fail to take in that this is not spot. Container resets now are 12m deals. It is also very hard to see any "12m wind down of excessive storage" as we are going through in tankers
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
5 Sep 20
1. Most companies do not want to shrink out of business
2. This means old tanker Companies WILL renew fleets.
3. When you renew you buy at 100% of NAV
4. When you sell old tankers the payment is not material.
5. Means 50% NAV in old Co is not worth much. Will be diluted upwards.
The best example of this right now is Teekay Tankers $TNK imo. But it is a general rule. The fan club of $DSSI also called for divs and buybacks before that hope was crushed by management. In the DSSI case you also have too high leverage vs coming losses, debt level, fleet age.
HOWEVER, a cheap NAV valuation in an already renewed fleet is a gift. The renewal is already done and the material part of the cashflow is only likely to go to scheduled amortizations & return of cash when times are good. For the old tonnage it all goes to big amortization
Read 6 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
24 Jul 20
Y-day I wrote about locked in charter averages Okeanis for the future, now I am going to write about costs per day to later compare. Three main parts for me as a simple investor: 1. OPEX 2. Interest costs 3 Amortization/Depreciation together forming all in break even AVERAGE #OET
OPEX, well we pretty much are given that here as 2019 average and Q1 2020 actually was lower (larger fleet lowering costs?) so 8200 it is for me:
Interest costs: Well those have fallen and #OET is fully exposed to that.. As we are kind of doing a stress test of the company later comparing to the work of much appreciated @JHannisdahl assumptions it is not likely Libor would go up in a world where newbuild prices crash 15%..
Read 6 tweets

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