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Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
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18 Feb, 8 tweets, 3 min read
9 in 10 Americans support a national jobs and training program
Gallup poll. gallup.com/analytics/3295…
Support for paid work dwarfs other options
There are many urgent tasks ahead. Addressing job losses and the economic crisis tops the list
93% believe the government should create a jobs program for the unemployed to address national and community needs
People understand many of the benefits of this program
They believe spending (even if large) is justified
They prioritized public health, childcare, infrastructure, green jobs, & other public services. All priorities in the Job Guarantee proposal
The Case for a Job Guarantee is strong amazon.com/dp/1509542094/…

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Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
11 Feb
Quick comments:
Postwar "Keynesianism" prioritized govt support for private industry & dropped the direct govt employment efforts after the New Deal/WWII. This was a mistake. No direct job creation featured here though there's potential in Biden's platform nytimes.com/2021/02/11/mag…
If "bold efforts" end up meaning only large govt spending, be prepared to be disappointed.
While green manufacturing is critical, manuf employs only 8% of workers. Double it. Impact will still be small. Service sector employs 80%. Tis where the pain is: unstable, poorly paid jobs
if we're going to transform the labor market, services have to be the focus. Where is the plan for stable, well paid service sector jobs? They are what most people live on.
(btw not even China can count on manuf for EMPLOYMENT growth)
Read 5 tweets
Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
30 Dec 20
$600/wk Unemployment Insurance cannot deliver the benefits of a $600/wk Job Guarantee. From the outset, I should say JG is not a replacement for UI, no matter what you may have heard. I’ll get to this later, but read this long 🧶 w/ that in mind.
Automatic stabilization: Both $600/wk UI and JG will provide counter cyclical spending. But UI will be weaker. Counter-cyclical stabilization is not just about the absence of income. It is also about the transmission and structure of economy
Firms don't like to hire the unemployed. Mass and long-term unemployment make the problem worse. JG would recover labor markets much faster than a UI of the same amount, both b/c of the higher direct, induced & tertiary employment effects & b/c of private firm hiring preferences.
Read 25 tweets
Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
22 Aug 20
Are you scared of the the #JobGuarantee?

Have you heard that it's hostile or antithetical to welfare or unions? Let me try to help.
1. The JG is a missing piece of the welfare safety net, an add-on, not a replacement. We
strengthen the welfare system by adding an "employment option". I have a whole book about it:
amazon.com/Case-Job-Guara…
2. If folks have no retirement income, we guarantee it (SocSec)
If kids need access to education, we guarantee it (pub educ)
If someone wants a job, training and UI aren't enough, We should guarantee that a basic job is avail.
(we need other guarantees too: housing, m4a)
Read 17 tweets
Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
16 Aug 20
"The private sector always does things 'better' than the public sector" is a perennial and pernicious argument. There is of course no 'natural law' that makes this so. But defending it often rests on a confusion between Administration and Purpose.
FedEx is 'better' than #USPS, private charter schools are 'better' than public schools, a private payments system is 'better' than one run by the Fed, private banking is 'superior' to public banking... you get the gist
The idea is that the public sector cannot manage admin complexity, which is nonesense (Military, anyone?).
The fundamental fact is that some services must be guaranteed to ALL. Full stop. And guarantees can only be provided by the public sector that holds the public purse strings
Read 6 tweets
Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
28 Mar 20
[thread] What If We Nationalized Payroll?

It was great to speak with @petersgoodman about a Nordic style rescue of the US economy. We ran a few thought experiments. Here are some thoughts that didn’t make it in the article
nytimes.com/2020/03/28/bus…
1st the US can budget/pay for ANY amount that's appropriated for whatever reason.

Peter asked “what if the govt paid all US payroll for a time?” My answer: "it would amount to nationalizing the payroll & would make the govt the Employer of First Resort"
What would it cost? One back-of-envelope calculation: 157mil employed ppl in the US x median income of $63,700 (2019) = approx $10Trillion for a year of payroll subsidy. I'd add $500b for #JobGuarantee (our @LevyEcon estimate) to support the unemployed w/ stable, living income.
Read 13 tweets
Pavlina R Tcherneva Profile picture
15 Mar 20
Thread
Recession is sadly required to tackle the pandemic. As millions lose their jobs, we still need an army of ppl to disinfect, deliver essential meds, food, etc
The solidarity economy is key. But we have no preparedness/protocol how 2 do this w/o putting ppl in harm's way 1/n
This is why we cannot rely on emergency responses. Going forward, preparedness in all aspects of public life must guide policy. So that we have the institutions and protocols for dealing with shortages in both equipment and human resources. 2/
But imagine how much better the recovery would be if we had a #JobGuarantee in place. Imagine the peace of mind it will afford the most vulnerable famies who have no idea how long they'll be out of work. Imagine the economic boost it will provide when living income is assured 3/
Read 8 tweets

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