Thread by @EHSANI221

Thread:

#Syria ‘s Old-style Baathists versus Bashar Assad’s liberalization policies

One thing that old-style Baathists understood was that being in the Arab nationalist anti-Western resistance camp had to go hand in hand with economic self-sufficiency

Boy, were they right

2-Since late 1960’a & early 1970’s Eco Self-Sufficiency became the hallmark of of #Syria ‘s political & social economy

Promote local industry to conserve on foreign currency and imports

Promote local agriculture to provide food security & heavily subsidized basic food staples

3-While self-sufficiency may made sense politically, it was an inefficient system that misallocated resources and allowed heavy handed Govt meddling in nearly every facet of Economic life. Many times, #Syria ‘s Govt found itself in the business of running businesses

4-Instead of importing tires, #Syria ‘s Govt set up its own factory near Hama. Instead of importing pencils from China, why not make them domestically?

Imports were taxed very heavily and consumers had to contend with inferior locally made products

5-As every industrialist knows, industry needs constant investment & capital infusion to keep up with technology & the competition

With widespread subsidies in place & as population doubled every 22 years, #Syria ‘s Govt could not meet the cash needs for reinvestments

6-Starved of reinvestments, inefficiencies and corruption, local industry fell way behind

After two decades, not one made any money and state coffers got depleted as the govt tried to keep them afloat

The fall of the Soviet Union would pave #Syria ‘s next phase

7-Fall of the Soviet Union was an implicit defeat of the self-sufficiency brand of economics. Globalization had won

Bashar Assad’s ride to power was timed with such powerful global trends that #Syria would also finally join ... even if in baby steps first

8-Those of us who grew up in the old Baathist #Syria were astounded to see the transformation even when it seemed slow and infant compared to others in the region

Private banks? Four Seasons Hotel? Fancy imported cars? Prada shoes in store displays?

9-As in most Eco liberalizations, the gap between the haves and have nots widens. In the case of #Syria , it exploded. While the urban cities enjoyed the liberalization, the rural parts of the country were suffocating from a drought & total disregard or attention by the center

10-The war that hit #Syria in 2011 exposed to the country's leadership the obvious contradiction between embracing an open liberal economic model while insisting on standing firmly in the resistance camp

The SWIFT system alone can bring the above combination to its knees

11-#Syria 's war ended up exposing the Schizophrenic nature of the country's conflicted policies as it discarded old style Baathist Eco self-sufficiency for a more liberal import-dependent model while it aspired to stick to its existing geopolitical orientation

12-The war devastated #Syria as it blew open the contradictions between its dependence on imports and running its own anti-Western independent policies

SWIFT stands in Damascus's way

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