How #Syria ‘s was could have turned out differently

It was June 6, 2011 when 120 army & security personnel were killed at Jisr al-Shoughour

Had Washington & Arab capitals dealt with this incident differently, countless lives would have been saved & so much misery avoided ==> This is how @nytimes reported on the incident

Right off, the article mocked Govt ‘s characterization of those who killed the soldiers as armed thugs & it went on to highlight how locals disputed the Govt ‘s story

Most media outlets did the same
nytimes.com/2011/06/07/wor…

#Syria ‘s Assad did roll out the red carpet for #Iran ‘s president

Assad wanted to dismiss any notion that his rapprochement with the Arab world would come at the expense of Tehran

But why is this alliance so enduring & why does Assad cling to it at seemingly high costs?

=> 2-When you pick allies, you want them to be there when you absolutely need them and for them to demand little in return

This is precisely what Tehran is to Damascus

A consistent & dependable ally who needs you just as much as you need them

Ditch them for who? And what?

More on @BDL_Lebanon new balance sheet look post using LBP 15,000

For the first time, we can tell what line items are held in US$ (anything that went up by nearly 9.95 times) and which are in LBP

We can tell, sort of

Salameh is as tricky as ever but lots of juicy stuff here 1-Easy part is the bottom liabilities side

89% of what @BDL_Lebanon owes is to the banks (financial sector deposits)

Digging into that line item, it now appears that 84% of all deposits lent by the banks to BDL are denominated in US$

That number now is $76 billion

US sanctions against #Syria were designed to punish Assad

Members of the opposition and their allies in Washington are extremely passionate about ensuring these sanction stay in place

Totally forgotten are the millions of innocent people who live in Govt-controlled areas

===> 2-US sanctions designed to hurt Assad are hurting millions of people wayyyyy more than they are hurting their intended target

Follow up to my original Thread and to help clarify more details on #Syria sanctions and the just announced GL 23

https://twitter.com/ehsani221/status/1623863505156820993?s=46&t=gnZj_O-zpF95GupZPx_j4Q

https://twitter.com/annellesheline/status/1624125615623311371

2-It is true that many financial intermediaries have both not been made aware of GL 23 and/or are reluctant to engage in doing any business in #Syria for fear of being subjected to OFAC restrictions and the Caesar Act

@USTreasury and OFAC will soon be addressing this

==>

Significant new positive initiatives from Washington that demonstrate how the Administration is increasing aid to Syrians in need, no matter where they live, The Treasury has just issued GL 23 to to support earthquake relief efforts in #Syria ====>

home.treasury.gov/system/files/1… 2- ( GL) 23 is a blanket General License to authorize earthquake relief efforts, and it was issued to make very clear that U.S. sanctions in #Syria will not stand in the way of life-saving efforts for the Syrian people.

====>

#Lebanon ‘s Central Bank booked what is now a cumulative $69 billion loss by creating a line item on balance sheet called

Other=Deferred=Magic Assets

@AndyKhalil1 was one of first to highlight this in detail

But how did @BDL_Lebanon pull this off & why did so many miss it? When a business incurs losses, it marks down its equity

@BDL_Lebanon equity was always a tiny $3.5 billion (blue line)

This was too small of a buffer to mark down given the sizable losses that were being incurred

Instead, BDL created

Other=Deferred=Magic (red line)

As part of a number of private discussions with @joshua_landis & after 10 years of war, I believe there is hardly been any real in-depth psych-analysis of Bashar Assad, the person

Arguably, this has been a key factor why many #Syria analysts got it so wrong from the start

=>

https://twitter.com/ehsani221/status/1462455774068805648

2-“Getting Bashar wrong” dates back to the very beginning immediately after his he took power

Many thought he would be a “reformer”

Time he spent in the UK was used to explain such predictions

Fact that he was the softer version of his late brother Basel was another

=>

Thread

Grand Mufti of #Syria had traditionally been an important post. Kaftaro had occupied that position till his death in 2004. The office used to receive security & was funded directly by the Presidential palace. Somewhat controversially, Assad picked Hassoun as the new Mufti

https://twitter.com/ehsani221/status/1461011451376775170

New Mufti was now to receive his funding from Awqaf ministry rather than directly from the Palace. That would already lead to some frictions within the two posts. Grand Mufti though was still the more important post

Other & more important issues had to do with Hassoun himself

Thread:

Rifaat al-Assad’s return to Damascus (reported here yesterday) is the long culmination of efforts that started as early as 2011 when #Syria ‘s crisis started

Set below is how Rifaat & his sons got into a push & pull exercise in multiple directions till this week 2-Since early on, Rifaat’s household was divided. His son Somar started making frequent visits to Damascus despite being a hawk against the Palace in Damascus pre 2011

Soon, Rifaat’s other son Siwar joined what has become known as the reconciliation camp inside the household

Thread

How much of what happened in #Lebanon is “financial” versus “political” is the single most contentious issue when it comes to analyzing & discussing this crisis

As readers can guess by now, i am firmly in the financial camp

Why?

Simple arithmetic & Economics

=> Before defending the financial thesis, let's get first into the political part

By political everyone presumably means Hizbollah (HA) and its allies. Story goes that this group runs as a state within a state. They control borders. They allow & practice smuggling

All true

==>

Assad’s Next Move? #Syria Thread:

Against all odds & by proving many pundits & policy experts wrong, Assad has seemingly survived brutal 10 y old war

Yes, he needed & received both the commitment & support of his two allies in this endeavor

But what is he likely to do next? 2-In spite of #Syria ‘s super centralized system that gives the President ultimate power & control over every facet of Governance, it is shocking how little academic & professional psychoanalysis has been performed on the personality of Assad as an individual

Nearly two years into #Lebanon ‘s financial crisis, one is yet to observe clear understanding or consensus on what happened

Even prospective PM @saadhariri today tried to confuse listeners either willingly or out of ignorance ==>

2-That #Lebanon ‘s Govt was spending beyond its means or that various ministries were riddled with corruption is beyond doubt

And that successive politicians did nothing but feed the beast is also not open to discussion

BUT this is NOT the reason Why Lebanon is here ==>

Thread

On Syrian Refugees, voting & recent street violence

1-Remember there are nearly 1.2 m refugees. Those involved in recent events are tiny %

2-Though often repeated, one is yet to produce any credible evidence of them being forced to vote

So who is voting for Assad? => Those making the trip were on busses likely arranged in various regions through support of Embassy / Hizbollah

There appears to be no intimidation behind making the trip. Most of those seem to be dual citizens and / or connected to the Hizb ==>

Friend recently asked:

“Surely, the American Army is not staying in #Syria forever and sooner or later they will leave, no?”

To his surprise, my answer was:

“No, I don’t think they would leave. Why would they? It costs v little & they incur hardly any casualties

Moreover > 2-Of all past military interventions in the region, US presence in #Syria is unique in a number of way. It is relatively small in scope, yet it does achieve a seemingly broad set of objectives both geopolitically and even domestically...>

When one participates in any Eco / Political discussions in multi-Religious / Sectarian regions like the Levant #Lebanon #Syria , one question always emerges:

Can the people of this region Co-exist?

Can they accept / embrace the other side?

By all accounts, answer seems No 2-War in #Syria has rendered the days of heavy top-down Centralized State obsolete. Efforts must now be exclusively directed at formulating a new post war system that takes away power from the center & hands it to the periphery as this is the de facto state of affairs anyway

You’ve been bombarded by experts on what #Lebanon ‘s financial crisis is all about

Here is a simple explanation:

Consumers between 1997-2018 outsmarted / screwed current and future Lebanese consumers by using an overvalued currency to fund their purchases

End of story 2-This is not to say this was a deliberate or conscious decision by 1997-2018 to screw or outsmart the future generation of consumers

As one of my friends used to tell me

Living in #Lebanon during that period was too good to be true. He may not have known why but he felt it

Thread on US intervention in ME

1-Israel
2-Oil
3-Counter-Terrorism / War on Terror

Are the broad categories that define U.S strategic interests in the region

Many have attempted to include the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in above list. Syria has been a case in point ==> 2-Israel & Oil are already secured enough

This has left counter terrorism or war on terror (WOT) as main rationale behind recent U.S interventions

Responsibility to Protect has been getting traction of late but as Syria’s case has shown it’s still work in progress in DC

#Russia ‘s military intervention in #Syria was arguably the decisive turning point that decided the war

Yet,

When did Damascus decide to reach out to Moscow?

Did Washington know?

More importantly, could the U.S have done anything to prevent the intervention

==> 2-As early as 2012, Damascus had become aware that the war posed an existential risk to the system. Messages were sent to key opposition leaders that unless the situation was soon brought under control, leadership will have no option but to reach to our "big allies"

Thread:

#Syria ‘s Old-style Baathists versus Bashar Assad’s liberalization policies

One thing that old-style Baathists understood was that being in the Arab nationalist anti-Western resistance camp had to go hand in hand with economic self-sufficiency

Boy, were they right 2-Since late 1960’a & early 1970’s Eco Self-Sufficiency became the hallmark of of #Syria ‘s political & social economy

Promote local industry to conserve on foreign currency and imports

Promote local agriculture to provide food security & heavily subsidized basic food staples

Head of #Syria State Security Housam Luca made a visit to Tafas in Daraa province (Yes, Daraa again)

Goal was to help calm restless citizens who have had a list of complaints against the state

Short Thread ==> 2-As #Syria ‘s Head of State Security Housam Luca finished speaking, local citizens in the crowd seemed to reply back with agitation and anger towards the officials present