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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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19 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
G7 conference call chaired by PM - with President Biden and new Italian PM Mario Draghi - all looks rather different to last one... as usual EU there repped by VDL and Michel, in addition to the “7”.
G7 leaders promise to “build back better for all” and commits to “levelling up our economies so that no geographic region or person, irrespective of gender or ethnicity, is left behind”.. and support Tokyo Olympics as a symbol of post Covid global unity

g7uk.org/joint-statemen…
Also G7 promises to:
-strengthen WHO, fund Covax $7.5bn
- explore global health treaty
-‘continue to support our economies to protect jobs/recovery’ (NB no mention of public finances)
-debt relief for pandemic afflicted poorer countries
-net zero by 2050
- digital tax by mid 2021
President Biden formally announces $4bn for Covax - global Covid vaccine alliance - at the Munich security conference

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
19 Feb
Public finances show first January deficit for a decade - £8.8bn vs £10bn surplus last Jan.

tax receipts held up far more strongly than might be expected... self assessment income actually up on last Jan - mainly a spending thing - vaccines, furlough

ons.gov.uk/economy/govern…
spending on eg procurement of vaccines, PPE etc - was up £8bn on last Jan, job support schemes £5bn up.

Interest payments more than half what they were last January - £1.8bn vs £3.9bn

EU contribution “0.0” - £2.1bn less than last Jan

“0.3bn” estimate on tariff income
Good point - they haven’t yet decided how to account for the ‘divorce bill’... also doesn’t appear to have been any payments for ongoing participation in EU schemes - though there should be some...
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
18 Feb
The Starmer economic speech is important moment for macro policy...
With new administration in US “going big” on fiscal stimulus, borrowing rates remaining super-low - Opposition could choose to lean further in same direction, marking break with post financial crisis...
Govt clearly already has “gone big” in past 12 months in terms of COVID rescue, but there will be an inevitable debate within Govt about just how quickly to apply the breaks to borrowing in rest of Parliament. Treasury argues existing infrastructure plans already were going “big”
So does Starmer “go bigger” than Govt, given significant G7 reflation efforts? Even with no election for years, such argument would affect dynamics of Downing St debate and in turn on length of toleration of high deficits, and so timing of tax rises, end of support policies etc..
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
14 Feb
PM interviewed on US network this morning - stressing cooperation on climate change with President Biden
PM pressed on adhering to NI Protocol in US... “you bet”
Really quite an interesting interview from PM re green ambitions says UK is going to make a “big bet” on hydrogen as well as becoming the “Saudi Arabia of wind”... full transcript here... cbsnews.com/news/transcrip… Image
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
13 Feb
NEW:
BBC has seen the official internal management data for the new post Brexit freight border - roll on roll off lorry outbound flows to EU now at 98% of last February - though was 73% in January... officials say “back to normal”...
That is reference to lorry flow rates - which is what Cabinet Office key committees most concerned about post Brexit in terms of knock on social impact for supplies of everything. Government now confident its “reasonable worst case scenario” of 7k lorries in kent won’t happen...
That is not same as saying trade has normalised - drawing on multiple sources - ferry manifests, Kent checks, french official data - the level of empty lorries on the short straits is around 50%, and was normally around 30%... ...

traffic here was 67% normal in Jan - 82% in feb
Read 12 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
12 Feb
interviewed Chancellor this morn after GDP confirmed historic 2020 economic hit..as well as “cautious optimism” related to vaccine rollout, re Budget he told me UK “requires sustainable public finances” & will “always be open & honest with people about what exactly that means”...
..was in response to my question re vaccine rollout success, was he comfortable with structurally high spending?
certainly pushed back against that -suggesting to me even if Budget21 a fiscal giveaway re support, wants to be ‘open & honest’ re: future tax bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
When you think about the constraints on future tax rises in Conservative manifesto... then I see a combination of corporation tax rises, fiscal drag on income tax thresholds, and most intriguingly, new taxes on online shopping and carbon...
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
10 Feb
BoE Gov Bailey joins battle over equivalence post Brexit... EU holding UK to a standard “it holds no other country to and would I suspect not agree to be held itself”

UK needs power to change its financial rules, not to do so would be “unrealistic, dangerous & inconsistent”
In Q&A Governor sounding notably pessimistic on EU granting equivalence for the City/ UK financial services, urges it not to cut itself off from UK capital markets
Does UK risk being cut off (re equivalence)?
Bailey: “a world which EU dictates & determines which rules & standards we have in UK isn’t going to work..Is EU going to cut UK off from itself? There are signs of an intention to do so at moment, but i think that would be a mistake”
Read 4 tweets

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