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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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12 Feb, 5 tweets, 1 min read
interviewed Chancellor this morn after GDP confirmed historic 2020 economic hit..as well as “cautious optimism” related to vaccine rollout, re Budget he told me UK “requires sustainable public finances” & will “always be open & honest with people about what exactly that means”...
..was in response to my question re vaccine rollout success, was he comfortable with structurally high spending?
certainly pushed back against that -suggesting to me even if Budget21 a fiscal giveaway re support, wants to be ‘open & honest’ re: future tax bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
When you think about the constraints on future tax rises in Conservative manifesto... then I see a combination of corporation tax rises, fiscal drag on income tax thresholds, and most intriguingly, new taxes on online shopping and carbon...
Chancellor is currently hosting the G7 finance ministers meeting including new US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Sunak told me that digital tax and greening the finance system was top of the agenda, alongside pandemic developing country assistance and debt relief...
Chancellor tells me re G7 priorities: “The first is to try and find a resolution this year on taxing internet companies and an international agreement on that would be fantastic.”

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
13 Feb
NEW:
BBC has seen the official internal management data for the new post Brexit freight border - roll on roll off lorry outbound flows to EU now at 98% of last February - though was 73% in January... officials say “back to normal”... Image
That is reference to lorry flow rates - which is what Cabinet Office key committees most concerned about post Brexit in terms of knock on social impact for supplies of everything. Government now confident its “reasonable worst case scenario” of 7k lorries in kent won’t happen...
That is not same as saying trade has normalised - drawing on multiple sources - ferry manifests, Kent checks, french official data - the level of empty lorries on the short straits is around 50%, and was normally around 30%... ...

traffic here was 67% normal in Jan - 82% in feb
Read 11 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
10 Feb
BoE Gov Bailey joins battle over equivalence post Brexit... EU holding UK to a standard “it holds no other country to and would I suspect not agree to be held itself”

UK needs power to change its financial rules, not to do so would be “unrealistic, dangerous & inconsistent”
In Q&A Governor sounding notably pessimistic on EU granting equivalence for the City/ UK financial services, urges it not to cut itself off from UK capital markets
Does UK risk being cut off (re equivalence)?
Bailey: “a world which EU dictates & determines which rules & standards we have in UK isn’t going to work..Is EU going to cut UK off from itself? There are signs of an intention to do so at moment, but i think that would be a mistake”
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
9 Feb
interesting chart from the Bank of England last week on freight traffic data into and out of Dover, showing indeed it getting back near levels seen last January in final week, but still notably lower than normal for previous two years (18-19 and 17-18) Image
In its response to RHA’s 68% down claim, Cabinet Office said short straits HGV traffic was 82% of normal last week (the chart above finishes the week before that) so these two bits of data are in sample ballpark comparing with last year specifically

gov.uk/government/new…
Cabinet Office also say that according to French data around 50% of lorries coming over from EU are going back empty, though that compares to the 30% in normal situation...
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
4 Feb
As we await Bank of England decision and new forecast at midday - some interesting new data. Car sales suffering in lockdown -
ONS put out detailed set of near real time economic indicators - including:
- weekly CHAPS data from Bank of England on debit and credit cards .. 32% down on last year...
-18% of workforce on furlough,
- 44% at normal place of work,
- online job ads down 22% on same week 2020
It’s here - very good effort from ONS: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
2 Feb
NEW: Pfizer expects $15bn of sales of the Biontech COVID-19 vaccine this year - a quarter of total 2021 sales - margin before tax in “high 20s” %... 50% gross margins split with Biontech. supplying 40m doses to low income countries via Covax at cost price...
...rather puts into context fact that Astra Zeneca & Oxford provided its vaccine at cost price to Eu and world (and that is defined in the famous contract released on Friday)..

effectively Biontech alone will gain in revenue much more than EU spending on its vaccine programme...
It’s not a perfect analogy, but effectively what the UK did was block its version of Biontech doing a deal with US pharma co, and matchmaked a UK company on condition of first dibs on vaccines and cost pricing..UK Gov was more dirigiste or strategic here, growing supply. EU not.
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
1 Feb
What’s happening to food exports?Coming up on #bbcnews10 Bridport, Dorset fishing business owner Charlie Samway describes new 26 step process to export back across Channel what they catch in it... adamant a month in, having prepared extensively, these aren’t “teething problems..”
big one - newly compulsory Export Health Certificate - here being granted by visiting vet inspecting the fish (also required for many other foodstuffs) stamping every page and box, in English and French and sealing the lorry -which was then subsequently held at Dunkirk for 15 hrs
Govt suggestion these are “teething problem” did not go down well here nor at clients Waterdance at Brixham harbour (a firm visited by PM in August 2019 and promised “no unnecessary form-filling”) there they said it was “insulting” as value of catch falls a third...
Read 13 tweets

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